Assessment of Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) and Meteoro-Agricultural Drought Monitoring in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Porvince
2020
P. Mohit Esfahani | S. Soltani | R. Modarres | S. Pourmanafi
Drought, as one of the most complicated natural events, causes many direct and indirect damages each year. Hence, single variable identification and monitoring of drought may not be appropriate enough for decision-making and management. In this study, in order to monitor the meteorological-agricultural drought in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) was calculated using precipitation and soil moisture variables. In addition, to evaluate the performance of MSDI in drought identification and monitoring, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) were used for meteorological and agricultural drought monitoring, respectively. MSDI was calculated based on the soil moisture and precipitation joint probabilities. We used the Gringorten probability as an empirical method and Archimedean copulas as the parametric method to calculate the joint probability between soil moisture and precipitation time series. The results indicated that MSDI was twice more capable of detecting drought as SSI and SPI. Furthermore, the MSDI-based drought monitoring results showed Charmahal and Bakhtiari province had experienced severe meteorological-agricultural drought in 2000, 2008, 2011 and 2014.
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