Ecosystem Service Valuation along Landscape Transformation in Central Ethiopia

Land degradation and discontinuation of ecosystem services (ES) are a common phenomenon that causes socio-economic and environmental problems in Ethiopia. However, a dearth of information is known about how ES are changing from the past to the future with regard to land use land cover (LULC) changes. This study aimed at estimating the values of ES based on the past and future LULC changes in central Ethiopia. Maximum likelihood classifier and cellular automata-artificial neuron network (CA-ANN) models that integrate the module for land use change evaluation (MOLUSE) were used to classify and predict LULC. The CA-ANN model learning and validation was employed to predict LULC of 2031 and 2051. Following LULC change detection and prediction, the total ES values were estimated using the benefit transfer method. Results revealed that forests, wetlands, grazing lands, shrub-bush-woodlands, and water bodies were reduced by 9755 ha (37%), 4092 ha (38.4%), 21,263 ha (81%), 63,161 ha (25.7%), and 905 ha (1%), respectively, between 1986 and 2021. Similarly, forests, wetlands, grazing lands, shrub-bush lands, and water bodies will experience a decline of 1.5%, 0.5%, 2.6%, 19.6%, and 0.1%, respectively. Meanwhile, cultivated lands, bare-lands, and built-up areas will experience an increase between 1986 and 2051. The estimated total ES values were reduced by US$58.3 and 85.4 million in the period 1986–2021 and 1986–2051. Food production and biological control value increased while 15 other ES decreased throughout the study periods. Proper land use policy with strategic actions, including enforcement laws for natural ecosystems protection, afforestation, ecosystems restoration, and conservation practices, are recommended to be undertaken to enhance multiple ES provision.