Quantitative Evaluation of the Impact of Vegetation Restoration and Climate Variation on Runoff Attenuation in the Luan River Basin Based on the Extended Budyko Model

The occurrence of water scarcity and extreme hydrological events is becoming increasingly frequent worldwide. The river runoff process, as an important link in the water cycle of a basin, is an essential content of the study of hydrological processes in the basin. Vegetation is an influencing factor closely related to hydrological processes in a watershed. This article quantitatively analyzes the impact of vegetation restoration and climate variation on runoff in the Luan River Basin from 1982 to 2018. Firstly, trend analysis was conducted on runoff depth, precipitation, the Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI), and reference evaporation. Then, Mann–Kendall mutation analysis and Pettitt mutation analysis were used to identify the year of runoff mutation. Finally, a Budyko model was constructed to quantitatively analyze the impact of vegetation and climate change on the runoff of the Luan River. The results showed that: (1) The runoff reduction rate of the Luan River was 1.2437 mm/a. The precipitation was increasing at a rate of 0.6977 mm/a. The reference evaporation rate decreased at a rate of 0.0977 mm/a. The annual growth rate of the Budyko parameter (<i>n</i>) was 0.0283. The annual growth rate of NDVI was 0.0022. (2) The coefficient of determination in the functional equation (a = 14.74, b = −3.4105) for NDVI and Budyko parameter (<i>n</i>) was 0.3297 (<i>p</i> < 0.01). (3) The contributions of <i>Pr</i>, <i>ET</i>₀, NDVI, and (<i>n</i>) to reduced flow were −17.49%, 1.46%, 35.25%, and 80.78%, respectively. The increase in vegetation would lead to a decrease in runoff. This study can clarify the impact of vegetation restoration on water resource security in the Luan River Basin.