Predicting the establishment of Diaphorina citri and Tamarixia radiata on Citrus x aurantiifolia orchards based on the plant–psyllid–parasitoid interaction on Murraya paniculata

Abstract Background The insect vector of Huanglongbing, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama, 1908 (Hemiptera: Lividae) was detected in Ecuador in 2013 and its main parasitoid Tamarixia radiata (Waterston, 1922) (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) was reported for the first time in 2017. In the citrus production region of Manabí province, Ecuador, D. citri and T. radiata were reported for the first time on Murraya paniculata L. in 2016 and 2018, respectively. D. citri was first found infesting Citrus x aurantiifolia (Christm.) Swingle in Manabí province at the end of 2018. The present study was conducted between August 2018 and May 2021 to: (1) monitor D. citri populations on M. paniculata and C. x aurantiifolia and determine the parasitism rates of T. radiata on D. citri nymphs on both host plants, (2) establish the occurrence of T. radiata parasitizing D. citri on C. x aurantiifolia, and (3) calculate a predictive model for estimating the number of parasitized nymphs on a planting lot of M. paniculata and a C. aurantiifolia orchard. Results Diaphorina citri populations on M. paniculata decreased from 11 nymphs (2018–2019) to approximately 2 nymphs per flush (2020). This was associated with a natural increase in parasitism rates of T. radiata from 20% (2018) to 96% in 2020. The regression equation (Y = 2.049Ln (x) + 5.88) was able to estimate the number of parasitized D. citri nymphs based on parasitism on M. paniculata (R 2: 0.8315). Tamarixia radiata was first detected on C. x aurantiifolia in July 2020. Populations of D. citri reached 55 nymphs per flush (no parasitism) and subsequently decreased to the minimum level of 14 nymphs per flush (parasitism rates of up to 31%). The model allowed estimating the number of parasitized nymphs by T. radiata on M. paniculata and C. x aurantiifolia, with a maximum deviation of approximately 2 nymphs. Conclusions Based on the colonization and establishment of the psyllid–parasitoid interaction on M. paniculata, it is estimated that approximately by the end of 2022, populations of D. citri on C. x aurantiifolia would decline due to the highest percentages of parasitism by T. radiata. High parasitism rates may indicate the potential of T. radiata in conservation biological control and integrated pest management programs.