Minimum capture-recapture rates and years of banding station operations to obtain reliable adult annual survival estimates

We examined variability in adult annual survival rate estimates for 33 breeding bird species, using 2011–2019 data from a 38-station Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program in Alberta, Canada. Using coefficient of variation (CV) as a metric, we provide recommendations for number of years a station should be operated and numbers of captures and between-year recaptures required to achieve acceptable levels of precision for adult survival estimation. Our primary aim was to provide minimum sample-size guidelines for MAPS banding station operators. The proportion of individual species × spatial scale scenarios for which we could obtain adult survival estimates, as well as the precision of those estimates, increased substantially once six years of data were collected, and we recommend six years as a target minimum level of continuity for banding station operation. Across 33 species analyzed, averages of 23.4 captures (3.9/yr) and 2.1 recaptures (0.4/yr) were needed to yield marginally precise survival estimates (CV of 20% to 30%, inclusive), while averages of 89.2 captures (14.9/yr) and 6.3 recaptures (1.1/yr) were needed to achieve more precise estimates (CV < 20%). We suggest these as guidelines for minimum capture and recapture rates at the scale of individual banding stations and for clusters of stations, e.g., multiple stations operated in a selected habitat type or sampling region, respectively. It should be noted, however, that sample-size requirements will vary markedly among species. For example, reliable estimates of survival for species with low between-year site fidelity, e.g., Tennessee Warbler (Leiothlypis peregrina), will not be obtainable at any sample size; while species with high inter-annual site fidelity and recapture probabilities, e.g., some flycatchers, thrushes, sparrows, and wood warblers, will require smaller sample sizes than those proposed here as guidelines.