Women’s Singles Tennis Match Analysis and Probability of Winning a Point

Alfonso Gutiérrez-Santiago; Pablo Cidre-Fuentes; Eduardo Orío-García; Antonio José Silva-Pinto; Xoana Reguera-López-de-la-Osa; Iván Prieto-Lage

Women’s Singles Tennis Match Analysis and Probability of Winning a Point

2024

(1) Background: The analysis of women’s tennis performance has not been extensively explored by the scientific community, necessitating further research to understand the tactical actions occurring in matches. This research aimed to examine the chance of winning a point in professional women’s tennis based on the key variables that influence performance in the sport. (2) Methods: Data from 3239 points were examined across three distinct court surfaces, sourced from the final rounds (starting with the quarterfinals) of three Grand Slam tournaments in the 2021 season. An observational methodology was employed, using various analysis techniques: descriptive and chi-square analyses, with a significance level of <i>p</i> < 0.05. (3) Results: The probability of winning a point on the first serve was 61% on clay, 70% on grass, and 69% on hard courts. For second serves, the probability of winning the point varied between 55% and 57%, depending on the court surface. Additionally, the majority of points, ranging from 70% to 71%, concluded with short rallies, involving one to four shots. On clay courts, the server won up to 65% of points with a first serve and a short rally, while the success rate increased to 75% on both grass and hard courts. For medium-length rallies (5–8 shots), the probability of winning the point dropped to 55–57%. The point outcome (winner, forced error, and unforced error) varied according to court surface, serve type, and rally length. (4) Conclusions: Descriptive data from this research on the probability of winning a point could assist coaches and players in developing match strategies.

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