Simulating wildlife habitat dynamics over the next century to help inform best management strategies for biodiversity in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California

Many forests of the western United States have undergone over one hundred years of anthropogenic impacts that have led to increased tree density, homogenization in forest structure, and accumulation of woody material, which combined with a changing climate pose threats to valued social and ecological features. In California, recent waves of tree mortality and unprecedented large and destructive fires have led to rising concerns about the impact of these disturbances on biodiversity and how forest management actions can mitigate negative impacts. To better understand the degree to which different management scenarios could mitigate the negative impacts of these disturbances on biodiversity, we used a spatially explicit modeling platform to model forest management impacts on habitat for terrestrial vertebrate species in the Lake Tahoe Basin of California and Nevada. Specifically, we modeled how 5 different management scenarios that differed in the type of fuel reduction treatment (e.g., fire and mechanical removal of vegetation) and extent of area treated influenced the amount, value, and distribution of reproductive habitat for the 159 species present in the study area. Our model results suggested that within the study area forest growth was predicted to out-pace disturbance leading to a higher percentage of late seral conditions; however, choice of management strategy impacted the composition and structure of the forested landscape leading to different trajectories for wildlife. In general, scenarios that allowed for more extensive use of fire led to a more equitable distribution of habitat types, whereas extensive thinning by hand and mechanical methods resulted in future forest structure that provided better outcomes in terms of reproductive habitat for wildlife. Our modeling results also suggested that low to moderate management strategies were not likely to change the current trajectory to more dense forests dominated by fewer species.