Future projection for areas suitable for double cropping of silage corn (Zea mays L.) production in Japan with two climate models under the RCP4.5 scenario
2019
Kanno, T. (Institute of Livestock and Grassland Science, NARO, Nasushiobara (Japan). Division of Forage Crop Research) | Morita, S. | Sasaki, H. | Akamatsu, Y. | Nishimura, K. | Kato, N. | Nishimori, M.
The future situation of double cropping (DC) of silage corn (Zea mays L.) in Japan was projected based on the data simulated with two climate models of MRI-CGCM3 and MIROC5 under the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Annual effective cumulative temperatures (ECT, 10℃ basis) in 2040 and 2090 were calculated for every second grid square (approximately 10 km × 10 km), as a mean value between 2031 and 2050, and between 2081 and 2100, respectively. The area suitable for corn-corn DC was distinguished as the area in which ECT was higher than its temperature requirement (2,300℃). It was predicted that the percentage of the areas suitable for corn-corn DC in Japan would increase from 21.4% at the present to 33.4-44.3% in 2040 and to 40.1-48.2% in 2090, and that the suitable areas would expand to the north of the Kanto region until 2090. It was also confirmed that, at Ebina City, Kanagawa Prefecture (one of the suitable areas for corn-corn DC at present), the mean temperatures during the first and second cropping in corn-corn DC were lower than that of the conventional summer-corn cropping, and that corn-corn DC would be one of the countermeasures to alleviate the effect of warming temperatures.
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