Spatiotemporal variation of drought characteristics in the Huang- Huai-Hai Plain, China under the climate change scenario

anglais. peer reviewed

anglais. Understanding the potential drought characteristics under climate change is essential for reducing <br />vulnerability and establishing adaptation strategies, especially in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (3H Plain) which is the grain production base in China. In this paper, the variation of drought characteristics including drought event frequency, duration, severity and intensity for the past 50 years (1961-2010) and future scenarios (2010-2099) based on observed meteorological data and RCP 8.5 projections were investigated, respectively. Firstly, the applicability of three climatic drought indices including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index based on the Penman–Monteith equation (SPEI-PM) and the Thornthwaite equation (SPEI-TH) were compared in tracing recorded agricultural drought areas. Then, the drought characteristics including drought event, duration, severity and intensity using “run theory” was analyzed for both historical observations and future RCP 8.5 scenarios based on the proper index. Correlation analysis between drought indexes and agricultural drought areas showed that SPEI-PM performed better than SPI and SPEI-TH in the 3H Plain. Based on the results of SPEI-PM, droughts over the past 50 years have experienced reduced drought with shorter durations, and weaker severity and intensity. However, for the future RCP 8.5 scenario, drought is predicted to rise in frequency, duration, severity and intensity from 2010-2099 although drought components during the 2010-2039 were milder compared to historical conditions. This study highlights that the estimations for atmospheric evaporative demand would bring in differences in long term drought trend of drought indexes and consequently the applicability in 3H Plain. The results of this paper can help inform researchers and local policy makers to establish drought risk management strategies.