Future projections for agriculture in Belgium from dynamic vegetation modelling
2024
Jacquemin, Ingrid | François, Louis | Tychon, Bernard
In the context of climatic and socio-economic changes, a number of questions arise for the future of the Belgian agricultural sector. These include the impact of global warming on yields, the impact of socio-economic changes on land use and land cover, and their combined effects on agricultural production. To answer these questions, we used the dynamic vegetation model, CARAIB, coupled with a multi-agent model, ADAM, to make projections according to different possible scenarios for agriculture in Belgium. Although yields appear to be positively impacted by climate change, the results nevertheless highlight potential adaptations to be considered by the sector. Production, for its part, tends to follow the reduction in farmland, which better yields would not be able to compensate for.
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