Sea Level Changes Affect Seismicity Rates in a Hydrothermal System Near Istanbul

Small stress changes such as those from sea level fluctuations can be large enough to trigger earthquakes. If small and large earthquakes initiate similarly, high‐resolution catalogs with low detection thresholds are best suited to illuminate such processes. Below the Sea of Marmara section of the North Anatolian Fault, a segment of ≈ $\approx $150 km is late in its seismic cycle. We generated high‐resolution seismicity catalogs for a hydrothermal region in the eastern Sea of Marmara employing AI‐based and template matching techniques to investigate the link between sea level fluctuations and seismicity over 6 months. All high resolution catalogs show that local seismicity rates are larger during time periods shortly after local minima of sea level, when it is already rising. Local strainmeters indicate that seismicity is promoted when the ratio of differential to areal strain is the largest. The strain changes from sea level variations, on the order of 30–300 nstrain, are sufficient to promote seismicity.

Plain Language Summary: Quasi‐periodic phenomena are a natural probe to test how the Earth's responses to a certain stress perturbation. High‐resolution catalogs with low detection thresholds may provide a new opportunity to look for this type of earthquake triggering. A segment of 150 km below the Sea of Marmara section of the North Anatolian Fault is late in its seismic cycle. Here, we generated high‐resolution seismicity catalogs for 6 months covering a hydrothermal region south of Istanbul in the eastern Sea of Marmara including seismicity up to MW 4.5. For first time in this region, we document a strong effect of the Sea of Marmara water level changes on the local seismicity. Both high‐resolution catalogs show that local seismicity rates are significantly larger during time periods shortly after local minima on sea level, when the sea level is rising. The available local instrumentation provided an estimate of the strain changes that were sufficient to promote seismicity. If such small stress perturbations from sea level changes are enough to trigger seismicity, it may suggest that the region is very close to failure.

Key Points: We generated enhanced seismicity catalogs to investigate the potential link between sea level change and seismicity in a hydrothermal region. Higher seismicity rates from the entire and declustered catalogs are observed during time periods when sea level is rising. Strain estimates from local strainmeters show that seismicity was promoted during reduced normal and enhanced shear strain conditions.

Helmholtz Association http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100009318

Alexander von Humboldt‐Stiftung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100005156

National Science Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001

National Aeronautics and Space Administration http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000104

VW momentum

https://tdvms.afad.gov.tr/

http://www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/sismo/2/earthquake-catalog/

https://www.unavco.org/data/strain-seismic/bsm-data/bsm-data.html