Assessment of the impacts of water resources allocation on the reliability, resilience and vulnerability of the water–energy–food–society (WEFS) nexus system
2024
Liu Dedi | Zeng Yujie | Shenglian Guo
To ensure water, energy and food supply security in the future, examining resources shortage risks within the integrated management strategy of the water-energy-food-society (WEFS) nexus system under uncertainties is necessary. Reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (RRV) are the most popular criteria for quantifying risks. However, their current applications focus on individual systems and adopt constant resource shortage rate thresholds across different spatial scales. To consider the interconnections in the WEFS nexus system and reflect the spatial heterogeneities of resource shortage risks when estimating the RRV, this study proposed a framework for estimating the RRV of the WEFS nexus system under uncertainties through a WEFS nexus model integrating water resources allocation model. Water availability uncertainty was simulated using Monte Carlo simulation and inputted into the stochastic WEFS nexus model. The water, energy, and food shortage rates outputted from the WEFS nexus model were used to determine the RRV of the WEFS nexus system. The impacts of water resources allocation on the RRV of the WEFS nexus system were studied by investigating its response to different water resources allocation scenarios at the basin and operational zone scales.
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