U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS AND AGRICULTURAL MARKET VOLATILITY. IS THERE A “TRUMP EFFECT” ON GRAIN COMMODITIES?

The aim of this study was to assess the impact of the 2024 U.S. presidential election and the so-called “Trump effect” on the volatility of agricultural commodity prices, with a particular focus on corn, wheat, soybeans, and oats. To evaluate the market’s reaction to political uncertainty, a 10-day election window (October 30 – November 12, 2024) was compared with a similar pre-election period (October 16 – October 29, 2024), with Election Day serving as the transition point. The study hypothesizes that the 2024 U.S. presidential election had a statistically significant impact on the volatility of agricultural commodity prices, reflecting changes in market expectations. This hypothesis was tested using the F-test, analyzing differences in variance between these periods. Daily price data for the analyzed agricultural commodities were obtained from the Datastream database. The results indicate that the 2024 U.S. presidential election had a varied impact on commodity market volatility. The F-test results confirm a significant increase in volatility in the wheat and oats markets, whereas corn and soybeans remained relatively stable. Descriptive statistics further support these observations, showing higher variance and standard deviation for wheat and oats during the election period, suggesting increased price fluctuations. Conversely, corn and soybeans exhibited lower variance and standard deviation, indicating reduced sensitivity to election-related uncertainty. Notably, wheat recorded a significant increase in its average return, while oats experienced a price decline, highlighting the differentiated sensitivity of individual commodities to political events. These findings contribute to the broader discussion on the impact of political uncertainty on commodity markets, emphasizing the need for risk management strategies during periods of heightened volatility.