A Multi-Source Strategy for Assessing Major Winter Crops Performance and Irrigation Water Requirements

Accurate regional crop classification, acreage estimation, yield prediction, and crop water requirement assessment are essential for effective agricultural planning and market forecasts. This study uses an integrated geospatial and statistical approach to assess major winter crops wheat and sugarcane cultivation in Ghotki District, Pakistan, from 2017/18 to 2022/23. It combines satellite data from Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2, ground truthing, and crop reporting records to analyze key factors such as cultivation area, crop gradients, vegetation health, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)-based wheat and sugarcane yield models, crop water requirements, and total irrigation water consumption. Results showed that wheat cultivation areas ranged from 15% to 19%, with the highest coverage observed in the 2021/22 winter season. Sugarcane cultivation ranged from 6% to 10%, peaking in the 2018/19 season. A strong linear association between NDVI and wheat yield (R² = 0.86) was observed. Wheat and sugarcane yield predictions utilized linear regression, and robust linear regression models, all of which were validated by the findings. Irrigation water demand for the winter season was calculated at 1887 million cubic meters (MCM) in 2017/18, with 1357 MCM supplied by the Sindh Irrigation Drainage Authority (SIDA). By 2020/21, water demand reached 2023 MCM, while SIDA’s supply was 1357 MCM. These results highlight the significance of integrating geospatial analysis with statistical records to provide timely, reliable estimates for cropped areas, yield forecasting, vegetation dynamics, and irrigation planning. The proposed methodology contributes a scaleable solution for informed decision-making in agricultural and water resource management, applicable across other districts in Pakistan and on a global scale.