Climate change and heatwaves in the main coastal cities of the Basque Country
2020
Abadie, Luis María | Smid, M. | European Commission | Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation | BERC | MINECO | Spanish Ministry of the Economy and Competitiveness
In this paper we analyse the probabilistic behaviour of heatwaves (HWs) in the main coastal cities of the Basque Country (Bayonne, Bilbao and Donostia-San Sebastian) in the twentyfirst century. We estimate HW behaviour using data from eight climate circulation models under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5). We model HWs according to three factors: number per annum, duration and intensity, including correlations, and find very different results for each climate model. This highlights the problem of using a single model. Under RCP 8.5, we find an expected mean excess over the 30C temperature threshold of 4.19C for Bayonne, 4.05C for Bilbao and 4.14C for Donostia-San Sebastian in 2100. These expected values are based on incomplete information, so we also calculate several risk measures. © 2020 Servicio Central Publicaciones. Gobierno vasco.
Afficher plus [+] Moins [-]This research is supported by the Basque Government through the BERC 2018-2021 programme and by the Spanish Ministry of the Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) through BC3 Mar?a de Maeztu excellence accreditation MDM-2017-0714. Additionally, Luis M. Abadie gratefully acknowledges financial support from The Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (RTI2018-093352-B-I00). Marek Smid acknowledges the H2020 EU project COACCH-grant agreement N. 776479.
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