Modelling the Dynamic Interaction between Production Growth and Carbon Footprint of Livestock Sector in Ethiopia
2025
Petros Terefe Tolcha | Helen Berga Paulos
: Livestock is the largest agricultural subsector, supporting the livelihood of many populations and the economy in Ethiopia. The sector is, however, a significant contributor to the carbon footprint in the country. Only direct emissions from the sector accounted for more than 36% of total emissions. Thus, the purpose of this study is to model and evaluate the livestock production system and its contribution to the carbon footprint. A system dynamics model that represents the livestock production system and its interaction with the environment in Ethiopia has been built. The simulated results have demonstrated that increasing meat productivity through improvement in feed quality and supply, increasing slaughter, managing land use change, and implementing price policy have a sound effect on lowering greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) while also improving the supply and value of meat. The policy scenario has achieved 15% and 11% growth in meat and livestock value, respectively, while reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40% compared to the base case in 2040.
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