Modeling the effect of multiple pests on ecosystem services provided by fruit crops: Application to apple

CONTEXT: In agroecosystems, crop pests have long been controlled by the intensive use of synthetic pesticides. To lower the dependency on pesticides, alternative crop protection strategies such as Integrated Pest Management (IPM) and Agroecological Crop Protection (ACP) have been proposed. In this context, it is crucial to consider multiple pests and their effects on host plant functioning and, ultimately, on system performance. OBJECTIVE: We aim to develop a pest-crop model to account for the effect of multiple pests on fruit tree functioning and the resulting ecosystem services provided by an orchard, using apple as a case study. METHODS: First, we identified possible mechanisms of pest disturbance on apple tree for ten major pests: rosy and woolly apple aphid, codling, oriental and tortrix moths, red mite, powdery mildew, European canker, fire blight and apple scab. We classified them into seven functional groups: resource stealers, leaf area reducers, assimilation rate reducers, water transport reducers, assimilate sappers, fruit senescence accelerators and fruit marketability depreciators. Second, we defined coupling functions for each functional group. These describe the reduction of target variables in an existing fruit tree model (QualiTree), i.e. the variables to which the pest disturbances directly apply, as a function of pest abundances. Parameter values of the coupling functions were estimated based on the literature. Third, we used simulations in standard cultural conditions and a Monte Carlo Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis to test and hierarchize the effect of pests on the variation of nine indicators of four classes of ecosystem services (namely fruit production, climate regulation, soil nitrogen availability and water cycle maintenance and regulation). RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Only four indicators were affected by the considered pests: refractometric index (measuring fruit sugar content), marketable yield, carbon sequestration and water drainage. The variations in refractometric index and in marketable yield were largely explained by the main effects of water transport reducers and fruit senescence accelerators, respectively. The latter also contributed the most to carbon sequestration variation. The variation in water drainage was largely explained by the main effect of mildew, an assimilation rate reducer. SIGNIFICANCE: Our approach provides an operational tool to assess the impact of multiple pests on orchard ecosystem services. The model also opens up the possibility of studying the impact of pests in different ecological and technical contexts. For this, it must be coupled with models capable of predicting pest abundances as a function of cultivation practices and biotic and abiotic conditions.