Chlorophyll-a and Sea Surface Temperature Changes in Relation to Paralytic Shellfish Toxin Production off the East Coast of Tasmania, Australia

Toxic phytoplankton have been detrimental to the fishing and aquaculture industry on the east coast of Tasmania, causing millions of dollars in loss due to contaminated seafood. In 2012&ndash:2017, shellfish stocks were poisoned by Alexandrium catenella, a dinoflagellate species that produces paralytic shellfish toxins (PST). Remote sensing data may provide an environmental context for the drivers of PST events in Tasmania. We conducted spatial and temporal trend analyses of the Multi-Scale Ultra-High-Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (MUR SST) and Ocean Color Climate Change Initiative chlorophyll-a (OC-CCI chl-a) to determine if SST and chl-a correlated with the major toxin increases from 2012 to 2017. Along with the trends, we compare the remotely sensed oceanographic parameters of SST and chl-a to toxin events off the east coast of Tasmania to provide environmental context for the high-toxin period. Spatial and temporal changes for chl-a differ based on the north, central, and southeast coast of Tasmania. For sites in the north, chl-a was 5.3% higher from the pre-PST period relative to the PST period, 5.1% along the central part of the coast, and by 6.0% in the south based on deviations from the coastal study area time series. Overall, SST has slightly decreased from 2007 to 2020 (tau = &minus:0.011, p = 0.827) and chl-a has significantly decreased for the east coast (tau = &minus:0.164, p = 1.58 &times: 10&minus:3). A negative relationship of SST and PST values occurred in the north (r = &minus:0.530, p = 5.32 &times: 10&minus:5) and central sites (r = &minus:0.225, p = 0.157). The correlation between satellite chl-a (from OC-CCI, Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), and Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) Aqua) and in situ data is weak, which makes it difficult to assess relationships present between chl-a and toxin concentrations. Moving forward, the development of a regional chl-a algorithm and increased in situ chl-a collection and plankton sampling at a species level will help to improve chl-a measurements and toxic phytoplankton production monitoring around Tasmania.