ENSO Impacts on Jamaican Rainfall Patterns: Insights from CHIRPS High-Resolution Data for Disaster Risk Management
2024
Cheila Avalon-Cullen | Rafea Al Suhili | Nathaniel K. Newlands | Christy Caudill | Harvey Hill | Jaqueline Spence-Hemmings | Markus Enenkel
This study examines the influence of the El Niñ:o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Jamaica&rsquo:s rainfall patterns, leveraging CHIRPS data from 1981 to 2021 in 370 locations. Our analysis reveals a distinct ENSO imprint on rainfall, with La Niñ:a phases showing a consistently higher probability of exceeding various rainfall thresholds compared to El Niñ:o. Notably, La Niñ:a increases the likelihood of heavier rainfall, particularly in the wet seasons, with probabilities of exceeding 200 mm reaching up to 50% during wet season II. Spatially, the probability of total monthly rainfall (TMR) during La Niñ:a is elevated in the northeastern regions, suggesting regional vulnerability to excess rainfall. Additionally, during El Niñ:o, the correlation between TMR and the maximum air temperature (Tmax) is significantly stronger, indicating a positive and more pronounced relationship between higher temperatures and rainfall, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.39 to 0.80. Wind speed and evapotranspiration show a negligible influence on TMR during both ENSO phases, maintaining stable correlation patterns with only slight variations. The results of this study underscore the necessity for differentiated regional strategies in water resource management and disaster preparedness, tailored to the unique climatic characteristics imposed by ENSO variability. These insights contribute to a refined understanding of climate impacts, essential for enhancing resilience and adaptive capacity in Jamaica and other small island developing states.
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