Analysis of Spatial Suitable Habitats of Four Subspecies of Hippophae rhamnoides in China Based on the MaxEnt Model

Hippophae rhamnoides L. is an ecologically and medicinally significant species widely distributed across Eurasia, the suitable habitat of H. rhamnoides subsp. sinensis (is hereinafter referred to as sinensis) is concentrated in Northwest and Southwest China (approximately 34&ndash:40&deg: N, 100&ndash:115&deg: E). H. rhamnoides subsp. yunnanensis (hereinafter referred to as yunnanensis) is mainly distributed in the Hengduan Mountains and surrounding areas (approximately 25&ndash:30&deg: N, 98&ndash:103&deg: E). H. rhamnoides subsp. mongolica (hereinafter referred to as mongolica) is native to Central Asia to Siberia and is mainly distributed in Northern Xinjiang and Western Inner Mongolia in China (approximately 40&ndash:50&deg: N, 100&ndash:120&deg: E). H. rhamnoides subsp. turkestanica (hereinafter referred to as turkestanica) is mainly distributed in Western Xinjiang (approximately 40&ndash:45&deg: N, 70&ndash:85&deg: E). Climate change poses a considerable challenge, affecting its distribution and leading to shifts in its habitat ranges. This study applies the MaxEnt model to assess climate-driven distribution patterns of Hippophae species in China, and predicts current and future suitable habitats under climate change scenarios. This study employs the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS to simulate the potential distribution of four subspecies of H. rhamnoides during the current period and future projections under scenarios SSP1&ndash:2.6 and SSP5&ndash:8.5. The analysis reveals that the distributions of sinensis, mongolica, yunnanensis, and turkestanica are influenced primarily by climate variables such as temperature and precipitation, while yunnanensis is predominantly restricted by altitude. Future projections indicate that under the extreme climate of SSP5&ndash:8.5, centroid migration will be disrupted: specifically, sinensis is expected to migrate northeast or oscillate, mongolica will expand southwest but be limited by desert steppe zones, and turkestanica may face risks associated with groundwater depletion. This study advocates for integrating climate, ecological, and genetic data into conservation planning, with an emphasis on groundwater restoration and exploring genetic resources for stress resilience. The insights offered here contribute significantly to understanding climate adaptation mechanisms in arid and mountainous ecosystems and guide biodiversity conservation efforts.