Extreme lows of wheat production in Brazil
2021
DE SOUZA NÓIA JÚNIOR Rogério | MARTRE Pierre | FINGER Robert | VAN DER VELDE Marijn | BEN-ARI Tamara | EWERT Frank | WEBBER Heidi | RUANE Alex | ASSENG Senthold
Wheat production in Brazil is insufficient to meet domestic demand and falls drastically in response to adverse climate events. Multiple, agro-climate-specific regression models, quantifying regional production variability, were combined to estimate national production based on past climate, cropping area, yield, and national commodity prices. Projections with five CMIP6 climate change models suggest extremes of low wheat production historically occurring once every 20 years would become up to 90% frequent by the end of this century, depending on representative concentration pathway, magnified by wheat price. Similar impacts can be expected for other crops and in other countries. This drastic increase in frequency in extreme low crop production with climate change will threaten Brazil’s and many other countries progress towards food security and abolishing hunger.
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