Artificial neural networks for predicting first-lactation 305-day milk yield in crossbred cattle

This study was conducted using the first-lactation records of 1092 Vrindavani crossbred cattle to compare the relative efficiency of an artificial neural network (ANN) versus multiple linear regression for predicting the first-lactation 305-day milk yield (FL305DMY). The two input sets used for predicting FL305DMY in the study were input set-1: first four monthly test-day milk yields, age at first calving, and peak milk yield; and input set-2: first four monthly milk yields, age at first calving, and peak milk yield. The ANN was trained using a backpropagation algorithm based on Bayesian regularisation, and the algorithm was tested using four sets of training and test data at ratios of 66.67:33.33, 75:25, 80:20, and 90:10. The results revealed that the coefficient of determination showed no regular trend with decreasing the test dataset. Nevertheless, the observed values were highest for the 90:10 ratio of training-test data for both input sets, with the lowest root mean square error. The ANN model outperformed the multiple linear regression model when predicting FL305DMY, with an accuracy of 79.09% for input set-1 and 83.67% for input set-2, with the lowest root mean square error values for both input sets. Therefore, the ANN model can be used as an alternative technique to predict FL305DMY in Vrindavani cows. Submitted 30 June 2024; Accepted 20 December 2024; Published January 2025 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Significance of research to South African science The research demonstrates the potential of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to enhance dairy herd management through accurate early prediction of first-lactation 305-day milk yield in crossbred cattle. The study compares ANN and multiple linear regression models, showing that ANNs provide superior predictive accuracy and lower error margins. This has important implications for local dairy farming systems, particularly in data-limited environments, as it offers a practical tool for early identification of high- and low-producing cows. By enabling data-driven selection and culling decisions, the approach supports improved productivity, genetic progress, and economic efficiency in the South African livestock sector.