Effects of the export restrictions on birch log market in Northwest Russia
2019
Karvinen, Sari | Mutanen, Antti | Petrov, Vladimir
Russia is planning to impose an export quota for birch logs in 2018, reasoned by the increasing export volumes and rising price of birch logs harming the domestic plywood production. In this paper, the possible effects of the planned export quota are analysed by scrutinising the interdependencies between the exports, domestic consumption, and prices of birch logs in Northwest Russia, the largest producer of plywood and exporter of birch in Russia. According to the results, the domestic demand has determined the price development of birch logs, while the effect of exports has remained week. It can be concluded, that the total demand for birch logs in Northwest Russia has been dominated by domestic consumption and it seems that despite the parallel rising trends of domestic use and export volumes, the birch log resources and harvesting volumes have been adequate to meet the increasing demand. Notwithstanding the periodical fluctuations, the long term development of price of birch logs has remained rather steady in the region. Thus, the effect of the quota on birch log price development in the domestic Russian roundwood markets would probably remain small. However, the quota would likely be contrary to trade agreements, add to bureaucracy and destabilise the operating environment of logging companies as well as international buyers of Russian roundwood.
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