Study on Mine Water Inflow Prediction for the Liangshuijing Coal Mine Based on the Chaos-Autoformer Model

Mine water hazards represent one of the principal threats to safe coal mine operations: therefore, accurately predicting mine water inflow is critical for drainage system design and water hazard mitigation. Because mine water inflow is governed by the combined influence of multiple hydrogeological factors and thus exhibits pronounced non-linear characteristics, conventional approaches are inadequate in terms of forecasting accuracy and medium- to long-term predictive capability. To address this issue, this study proposes a Chaos-Autoformer-based method for predicting mine water inflow. First, the univariate inflow series is mapped into an m-dimensional phase space by means of phase-space reconstruction from chaos theory, thereby fully preserving its non-linear features: the reconstructed vectors are then used to train and forecast inflow with an improved Chaos-Autoformer model. On top of the original Autoformer architecture, the proposed model incorporates a Chaos-Attention mechanism and a Lyap-Dropout scheme, which enhance sensitivity to small perturbations in initial conditions and complex non-linear propagation paths while improving stability in long-horizon forecasting. In addition, the loss function integrates the maximum Lyapunov exponent error and earth mode decomposition (EMD) indices so as to jointly evaluate dynamical consistency and predictive performance. An empirical analysis based on monitoring data from the Liangshuijing Coal Mine for 2022&ndash:2025 demonstrates that the trained model delivers high accuracy and stable performance. Ablation experiments further confirm the significant contribution of the chaos-aware components: when these modules are removed, forecasting accuracy declines to only 76.5%. Using the trained model to predict mine water inflow for the period from June 2024 to June 2025 yields a root mean square error (RMSE) of 30.73 m3/h and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.895 against observed data, indicating excellent fitting and predictive capability for medium- to long-term tasks. Extending the forecast to July 2025&ndash:November 2027 reveals a pronounced annual cyclical pattern in future mine water inflow, with markedly higher inflow in summer than in winter and an overall slowly declining trend. These findings show that the Chaos-Autoformer can achieve high-precision medium- and long-term predictions of mine water inflow, thereby providing technical support for proactive deployment and refined management of mine water hazard prevention.