Impact of climate variability on nutmeg production in the Banda Islands, Maluku, Indonesia
2025
LEATEMIA, JOHANNA AUDREY | LAIMEHERIWA, SEMUEL | REHATTA, HERMAN
Maluku, an archipelagic province with many small islands, is a key nutmeg-producing region in Indonesia. However, nutmeg production has declined over time for unclear reasons. This study aims to assess climate change and its impact on nutmeg production in the Banda Islands, Maluku, Indonesia, by analyzing long-term (1964–2023) rainfall trends and the relationship between climate variables and crop productivity. The relationship between climate variables and nutmeg production over a 15-year period was analyzed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The results showed annual rainfall in the Banda Islands increased by 13% in 1994–2023 compared to 1964–1993. The frequency of El Niño events decreased from 8 to 4, while La Niña events increased from 4 to 8 over the same periods. Nutmeg production is positively correlated with rainfall and relative humidity, while it is negatively associated with air temperature and sunshine duration.
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