Analysis of the meteorological risk of drought and the social perception of the phenomenon in the Media and Huasteca Potosina regions of Mexico | Análisis del peligro de sequía meteorológica y percepción social del fenómeno en las regiones Media y Huasteca Potosina, México

anglais. Droughts of considerable magnitude are recorded in Mexico, mainly in the northern and central-northern states. The territory of the state of Potosi presents increasingly frequent drought events, even in the most humid areas such as the Huasteca. The objectives of this study were to analyze the meteorological drought hazard from a multivariate analysis based on three bivariate Archimedean copulas at a regional scale, to recognize the perception of the inhabitants to this phenomenon and to identify the adaptation measures implemented in three communities, in the Middle and Huasteca regions of San Luis Potosi. Based on meteorological data, climate coverages were generated and their particularities were evaluated. The characterization of the droughts was based on the gust theory, using the “drought” package of the statistical program R. The Standardized Precipitation Index was used to determine the drought events. The evaluation included a univariate and multivariate analysis based on three bivariate Archimedean copulas. Finally, the joint probability of both drought duration and severity simultaneously exceeding the specified threshold was estimated and its results were spatially represented. By means of participatory methodologies, the perception of the inhabitants about drought was assessed, as well as the identification of the actions implemented to counteract the effects of this phenomenon in three communities of the municipality of San Antonio, SLP. The process included the application of semi-structured interviews with open and closed questions to rural producers in the three communities, as well as participatory workshops with local stakeholders. In the state of Potosi, drought is a recurrent phenomenon that affects an increasing surface area and increases the number of municipalities affected, even in the areas considered the wettest in the state of Potosi. The average duration of droughts, in the three time scales, was comparatively longer in the southwest of the Huasteca and in the north of the Middle region. The longest and most severe droughts occurred in the southwestern and northeastern Huasteca and in the central-northern Middle region. For different time scales and return periods, the north of the Middle region and the southwest of the Huasteca present a high danger of drought. On the 12-month time scale, Xilitla, Huehuetlán, Aquismón and Ciudad del Maíz are the municipalities with the highest hazard. The areas with the highest drought hazard concentrate between 218 (3-month time scale and 5-year return period) and 31 localities (12-month time scale and 100-year return period), in which an estimated 146,211 inhabitants have been and could be affected by this phenomenon in the future. At the local scale, the inhabitants of the communities recognize an increase in drought events, as well as an increase in the number of drought events. 90% of the producers, confirm that there is a change in rainfall patterns particularly since 2016 and the problem is increasing. They recognize that in recent years there have been climatic anomalies that were not common before. These distortions have negatively impacted their livelihoods. Producers admit that the lack of rainfall and high temperatures severely affect crops, due to the fact that farmland dries out faster than usual. In response, they have implemented different measures to safeguard their livelihoods, such as the production of sugar cane for piloncillo. Some actions implemented include covering the soil with leaf litter or cane residues to increase moisture retention in the soil, tying or wrapping bundles of weeds or stalks and placing them between each furrow in a spaced manner (locally known as engavillado), modifications to the topography of the farmland, and runoff management. However, the measures implemented so far proved to be insufficient to cope with the 2023-2024 drought. The impacts associated with drought are severe, because their livelihoods are highly sensitive and dependent on rainfall. The combination of methodological approaches allows a complementarity in the generation of new knowledge on regional drought patterns, with the way in which communities suffer, perceive, interpret and coexist with these meteorological and climatic events.

espagnol; castillan. En México se registran sequías de magnitud considerable, principalmente en los estados del norte y centro-norte. San Luis Potosí reporta sequías cada vez más frecuentes, incluso en las zonas de mayor humedad. Este estudio analiza el peligro de sequía meteorológica a partir de un análisis multivariado, así como la percepción de los habitantes acerca del fenómeno en las regiones Media y Huasteca Potosina. A partir de datos meteorológicos, se generaron coberturas climáticas y se evaluaron sus características. Para determinar los eventos de sequía se empleó el Índice de Precipitación Estandarizado. La evaluación incluyó un análisis univariado y multivariado basados en tres cópulas bivariadas de Arquímedes. Por medio de metodologías participativas se valoró la percepción de los habitantes en tres localidades afectadas por eventos de sequía, así como las acciones implementadas para contrarrestar sus efectos. Para diferentes escalas de tiempo y períodos de retorno, el norte de la región Media y el suroeste de la Huasteca presentan un alto peligro de sequía. En la escala de tiempo de 12 meses, Xilitla, Huehuetlán, Aquismón y Ciudad del Maíz son los municipios con mayor peligro. El 90% de los productores, confirma que existe un cambio en los patrones de lluvia particularmente desde 2016 y el problema va en aumento. Los diferentes eventos de sequía experimentado por los habitantes los han llevado a implementar diversas medidas de adaptación para salvaguardar sus medios de vida, la mayoría de los entrevistados reconoce que son insuficientes las acciones para hacer frente a este fenómeno.