Appraisal of agricultural subsectors growth in various policy regimes in Nigeria
2015
Udah, SC | Nwachukwu, IN | Akpan, SB
The contribution of agriculture to overall GDP decreased from 64% in 1960 to 46% in 2010. This is as a result of abysmally poor performance of its subsectors. With the exception of crop sub sector, livestock share of agricultural GDP declined from 24% in 1980 to 6% in 2010; forestry from 4% to 1% and fishery from 11% to 3% respectively. In response to this scenario, this study evaluated the performance of agricultural subsectors in various policy regimes from 1961 to 2010 in Nigeria. The aim was to identify the regime that contributed more to the agricultural sector from which appropriate recommendations could be derived. Hence, the study estimated the exponential trend in output of each agricultural subsector and analysed each trend behaviour under different policy regimes. Secondary data consisting of each subsector output measured in million tonnes and obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical bulletins of various years were used. Regression analysis based on Ordinary Least Squares technique was used to estimate the exponential equation for each subsector. The result of the trend analysis confirmed deceleration of outputs of all agricultural subsectors. The result also showed inconsistency in growth pattern reflecting the volatile nature or uncertainty of the Nigeria.s economy. However, the result also showed that the period (1995-2010) of liberalization policy regime accelerated outputs of agricultural subsector compared to other policy periods considered in the study. The results therefore call for policies that will accelerate investment in the agricultural sector. Interest should also be channelled to policy continuity and sustainable liberalization of the country.s economy.Keywords: Agriculture, policy regime, acceleration, liberalization and Nigeria
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