Evolution of ecosystem services under the impact of urbanization using the InVEST model in the xiongan new area, China

Understanding the impact of land use on ecosystem service functions is crucial for guiding land management and ecological environment protection in Xiongan New Area (XANA), China. This paper employs the InVEST model to assess the temporal and spatial characteristics of water yield, carbon storage, water purification, and soil conservation ecosystem services in XANA from 1980 to 2020, analyzing geographical and spatial variations in ecosystem service capabilities. Through correlation analysis and the grid Moran’s I index, we explored the mechanisms of ecosystem action and the trade-offs and synergies among these services. Our results revealed that urban land use in XANA increased throughout the 1980–2020 period, with the fastest growth occurring from 2010 to 2020, primarily due to cultivated land conversion. Prior to 2010, cultivated land expanded rapidly, consuming significant amounts of water resources. Changes in land use structure drove increases in water yield and nitrogen output in the XANA ecosystem while decreasing carbon storage and soil erosion. Urban land area change was the primary factor influencing water yield and nitrogen output, while reduced water area was the main driver behind decreased carbon storage in the region. Cultivated land was identified as the primary contributor to soil erosion. The synergy between carbon storage and water conservation is closely tied to water area and urban land, while the synergies between carbon storage and water quality purification, soil conservation and water quality purification hinge on water areas and cultivated land areas. To ensure the sustainable development of XANA, it is essential to protect the wetland ecosystem in the Baiyangdian Lake basin, enhance forest and grassland coverage, and monitor temporal and spatial changes in different ecosystem services and their interrelationships closely.