Assessing and updating the environmental and conservation status of three endangered endemic plants in light of potential climate change in Saint Catherine Protectorate, Egypt

Abstract Background Evaluating the effect of climate change on the distribution patterns of endemic plants in the mountainous areas is critical for understanding the dynamics of this terrestrial ecosystem in the uncertainty of future changes. The population size of the endemic plants in Saint Catherine protectorate (SKP) has declined significantly over the previous century, as the climatic changes, especially drought and high temperature are the most threats that influenced the presence of them. Results Three endangered endemic taxa (Anarrhinum forskaohlii subsp. pubescens, Origanum syriacum subsp. sinaicum, and Polygala sinaica var. sinaica) were assessed depending on IUCN categories and criteria. Besides, the response of these taxa to anticipated climate change over the next few decades was investigated using species distribution models (SDMs). Our analysis included insertion of bioclimatic and soil variables in the SDM modeling process and incorporation of four main algorithms (generalized linear model (GLM), Random Forest (RF), Boosted Regression Trees (BRT), and Support Vector Machines (SVM) in an ensemble model. RF and GLM algorithms outperformed the other algorithms, underscoring their efficacy in predicting the distribution of endemics in Saint Catherine Protectorate (SKP). An examination of the relative significance of bioclimatic variables revealed that wind and climate variables were dominant in shaping the potential distribution of the three taxa. Wind, Bio9, Bio3, Vol. water content at -10kpa (water10) and elevation were the most effective variables for A. forskaohlii subsp. pubescens; wind, Bio3, Bio15, clay, and elevation for O. syriacum subsp. sinaicum; wind, Bio3, Bio8, clay, aridity index and elevation for P. sinaica var. sinaica. In addition, our projections showed that the potential range of O. syriacum subsp. sinaicum is expected to decrease over the next few decades under both scenarios SSP585 and SSP126. On the other hand, A. forskaohlii subsp. pubescens and P. sinaica var. sinaica are expected to expand over the next few decades under both scenarios. Conclusions Controlling the risk that threaten these species and implementing protection measures is essential. It is crucial to enact laws and regulations to ensure their safeguarding. Our discoveries highlight the urgency of conservation measures such as reintroduction, in situ and ex situ conservation planning in appropriate habitats.