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EARLY MARRIAGE AND ITS IMPACT ON THE PLANNING OF THE REPRODUCTIVITY PROCESS IN RURAL SHARKIA GOVERNORATE
2017
Huda El-Deeb | Sahar Newaser
The study aimed to identify the causes of early marriage for the children, his methods, and identify his effects. to determine the relationship between the age of the respondents at marriage, the Attitude of respondents toward early marriage for the daughter / son and the demographic, economic and social variables. To Determine the relationship between the application of the respondents to family Planning methods and the demographic, economic and social variables. to determine the respondents Application gap regarding the application of family Planning methods, according to different regions of the study. to identify the respondents application gap of family Planning methods and the degree of preference for these methods. The study was conducted depending on the social survey method in the villages of Kafr Abu Najm and Awlad Eiladawy in Sharkia governorate on a random sample of 223 units represens 5% of the total number of women in each village, and col-lected data using a questionnaire by personal interview, starting from April until late of June 2016, data were analyzed using frequencees and percentages, alpha Cronbach's coefficient, weighted mean, Pearson correlation coefficient, contingency coefficient, the expense of applied gap. The study found a range of resalts including: that early marriage percentage (less than 18 years) in the field study amounted to 36.3%, showing that about 43.5%, and 49.8% of the respondents have negative attitud and neutral about early marriage for girls, while more than half respondents have neutral attitud about early marriage for the son by 60.5%. and prove the existence of a significant relationship between the age of the respondents at marriage and variables: the number of years of education for the respondents, the number of years of education for the husband, the age at first birth, the suitable age of marriage for girls, the suitable age for boys, The attitud toward the planning of the process of reproduction. The results indicate existence of negative relationship between the age at marriage and variables: the number of children, number of pregnancies, satisfaction with the difference between couple for the girl, satisfaction with the difference between couple for their sons. The study also found that 94.2 % of respondents have neutral and positive attitude toward regulating the reproductive process, while shows that the highest percentage of respondents neutral and positive attitude toward reproductive process. The results indicate that 49.8 % of the respondents have negative attitude for preference and 49.3 % for the application and there are gap between the application of the respondents to the methods for family planning and the degree of preference for these methods.
Afficher plus [+] Moins [-]SIWA WOMAN PARTICIPATION IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL INDUSTRIES IN SIWA OASIS
2017
A. Refae | Effat Allam | H. Ahmed
ABSTRACT The research aimed to determine the level of participation of Siwa Woman in the development of environmental industries, And determine the relationship between the independent variables and the degree of the level of participation of Siwa Woman in the development of environmental industries, Determine the percentage contribution of variables moral relationship level of Siwa woman participation in the development of environmental industries, and to identify the motives of Siwa Woman in the development of environmental industries. This research was conducted in Siwa Oasis, It was selected sample of (256) respondents by 33.6% of the overall size, data were collected by using a questionnaire specially to achieve the research objectives, the statistical tools included percentage Frequencies, Pearson's correlation coefficient were used to data analysis. The study concluded the following key results The results showed that respondents with low participation in handmade carpets industry is 14.7%, While the respondents with medium participation is 22.3%, while respondents with high participation is 63%. The results indicate that the percentage ofrespondents with low participation in pickling olives are 12.3%, While the percentage of respondents medium participation is 15.9%, while the proportion of respondents with a high participation is 71.8 percent. The results showed that respondents with low participation in the manufacture of animal feed ratio is 17.2%, While the percentage of respondents medium participation is 15.2%, while the proportion of respondents with a high participation is 63.6 percent. Data suggests that respondents with low participation in the garment manufacturing Siwa is 7.3%, While the percentage of respondents participating medium is 9.9%, while the proportion of respondents with a high participation in the garment manufacturing Siwa is 82.8%. Results show that in the category of 7.8% total participation level low in the development of environmental industries, and 16.4% of them fall in the proportion of middle-class participation for the development of environmental industries, And 75.8% of the respondents fall in the category of high participation for the development of environmental industries in Siwa Oasis. Results show that the level of Siwa woman participation in the development of environmental industries was a significant relation at a level of 0.01 in all of: Capacity animal tenure, The degree of belonging to the tribal community, and the degree of adherence to tribal customs and traditions, Degree trend towards environmental industries, and the degree of exposure to sources of information on the environmental industries, As the value of simple correlation coefficient of Pearson: 0.225, 0.241, 0.217, 0.219, and 0.231, respectively, While the relationship was significant at the 0.05 level with age, While respondents 0.149 Pearson simple correlation coefficient values, and there was no significant relation to: the degree of education of the surveyed, the area of agricultural holdings. It turns out that the percentage contribution of these variables in explaining the contrast kidney respondents were significant at the 0.01 level And its contribution was all in the predictive ability and the other is 51.5%, of which 35.2% to the degree of exposure to sources of information on environmental industries, 9.5% to the point of belonging to the tribal community, and 5% to the degree of adherence to tribal customs and traditions, to 1.8% and the degree of the trend toward environmental industries. The results showed that the most important motives of Siwa woman in the development of environmental industries are: Increasing the family income to their participation in the environmental industries (89.5%), Help the family in the bride processing (83.9%), Out of the house to receive an education and to work in the environmental industries (76.7%).
Afficher plus [+] Moins [-]PRODUCING PROMISING PEA LINES THROUGH RE-SELECTION FOR YIELD AND QUALITY FROM MASTER B CULTIVAR
2017
Wafaa Elsadek | S. Elminiawy | S. Abd Elhady | A. Hamed
This investigation was conducted at Barrage Station (BHRS), Horticultural Research, Kalubia Governorate, Egypt, to get some new and promising pea lines (Pisum sativum L.) using pure line selection method on the basis of genetic variability. Selection was performed between or within four pea populations of Master Bcultivar. The populations were collected from four different regions in Egypt and subjected to selection procedure during 2012/2013, 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 growing seasons. The investigation intended to study different traits of growth and yield and its components viz., No. of days to flowering, No. of first flowering node, plant length, No. of branches per plant, pod length, pod width, pod thickness, pod weight, No. of seeds per pod, weight of seeds per pod, No. of pods per plant, weight of 100 seeds, shelling percentage, pod yield per plant and seed yield per plant. The target of this study was to improve pea yield and its components as well as earliness of yielding. The analysis of variance revealed highly significant differences among genotypes for most of the studied characteristics, indicating ample scope of selection. Most characteristics showed a higher heritability coupled with higher genetic advance through two cycles of selection indicating that these characteristics are stable and can be improved through selection based on phenotypic observations. Twenty lines were obtained from selection program and were compared against the baseline populations in addition to check cultivar (Entsar1).Results showed significant differences among lines for most studied traits. Selection program resulted in genotypes or lines given symbols of H3, G7, N1, N3, G2, G1 and K2 that considered promising lines. These lines have good pods traits, higher productivity and earliness of flowering. Simple correlation coefficient analysis revealed that greater emphasis should be given to the traits of No. of branches and No. of pods per plant along with pod length, pod width, No. of seeds and weight of seeds per pod for yield improvement.
Afficher plus [+] Moins [-]GREEN MARKETING AS A RECENT ATTITUDE TO ACHIEVE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
2017
Soha El-Deep | Ahmed El-Sayd
Environmental issues is an important topic nowadays as almost every country’s government and society has started to be more aware about these issues. This leads to a trend of green marketing used by the firms /producer in order to gain profit and protect the environment, Green marketing is the process of satisfying the needs and wants of customer’s in a way which can bring benefit or profit for both the producer and the society by reducing detrimental impact on the natural environment by providing less environmental harmful and/or more environment friendly products to the respondents, green marketing tools such as eco-label, eco-brand and environmental advertisement will make easier perception and awareness of green products attributes and characteristics, consequently, guiding them into purchasing environmentally-friendly products. Applying these policy tools plays an essential role to switch customer’s actual purchasing behavior to buy environmental friendly products, therefore, reduce the negative impact of synthetic products on the environment. The aim of this research was to know the respondents awareness of green marketing and its impact on sustainable development and to assess the attitude of respondents towards green marketing and sustainable development. A sample of (150) respondents was chosen from (5) super markets for administering well structured survey questionnaires. The analytical tools were used descriptive statistics, inferential statistical treatments such as percentages, means, and correlation analysis were applied to the data. From the research it was found that majority of the respondents did not have knowledge about green marketing because it is very new concept for respondents otherwise majority of the respondents agreeabout believing in the concept of green marketing, paying extra cost for green products also majority of the respondents strongly agreeabout supporting green marketing and sustainable development strategies The results of a correlation analysis between the respondents’ attitude towards green products with respondents’ demographics showed that, the respondents’ attitude towards green products was significant negatively correlated with Age, Education and income were significant positive correlated with respondents’ attitude towards green products, the research recommended that government and marketing organizations have to disseminate the importance of green marketing and enhancing the awareness at every level of stakeholders about green marketing.
Afficher plus [+] Moins [-]FIELD STUDY OF THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL EFFECTS OF THE AGRICULTURAL LANDS IN GIZA GOVERNORATE 2017
2017
F. Zaki | Thanaa Ahmed | H. Sahrhan
It is one of the most serious problems facing Egyptian agriculture, which is working to eat agricultural area Where farmland represents one of the most important agricultural economic resources in the provision of food, where is the problem of constant encroachment on farmland and converted from agricultural use to other uses of non-farm as the total agricultural land has been encroached upon construction during the period Area (1983 - 2010) about 64 Thousand acres in addition to the encroachment on about 38.46 thousand acres since the wealth of January 25, 2011 until 28/9/2014, which led to a decline in the average per capita agricultural land in Egypt from about 0.133 acres / population in 1983 to about 0.112 acres / people in 2011, was where the study problem in increasing encroachment on the land Agricultural Giza especially governorate Doanh the post-January 25 Revolution 2010 study was conducted to identify the effects of Aguetsadahoalajtmaih leveling farmland in Giza Governorate 2017 season. Where the characteristics and motives of the establishment of private projects and land has been identified, and this motivation strengthens the doctrine of the importance of infringement by seeing others from projects that are based on their negative impact on the neighboring lands of the project, especially if the success of the project and the desire to imitate this behavior or create a new project The previous project, whether through raw materials or taking advantage of the product of the former resident on the lands beyond it, which sees the oppressor as an incentive for the tradition and Altadam on the infringement of the other and waiting for what happened to him before the establishment of a plant on the land beyond it and did not see the behavior of Alchk Meh it packs serious and immediate accountability and behavior, whether or removal or punishment Salehbh both. It was concluded that the owners of the first Mivkron project is the amount of income obtained by the search for the compensation of what was obtained before the establishment of the project and shows the table what the project owner gets from the agricultural land before the establishment of the project and the income obtained after the establishment of the project and depends on the difference in income, The project, where it was found that the owner of a poultry farm was obtained on average on 94.4 pounds / month as the value of rent or equivalent percentage of the crops produced from the area on which the project is established (poultry farm, which is 5.28 i), while the increase rose to 12.3 thousand pounds, increase of about 13.56% than once The average monthly income before the establishment of the stadium amounted to about 193 pounds / month, which rose about 8 thousand pounds / month, an increase of about 4145% of what was obtained of the agricultural land, while the income of the owner of the wedding hall before the establishment of about 113.3 pounds / month of agricultural land, while the rise to about 4 thousand pounds from the wedding hall, an increase of 3530% of what was obtained from the ground. Although the satisfaction of the projects on the land above it is much higher than the return of agricultural land, this high return of projects does not correspond to the degree of food deprivation for future generations as a result of conversion of agricultural land to special projects in all wars and the occurrence of fodder or influence the political decision to import food and provide of society as a whole.
Afficher plus [+] Moins [-]AN ANALYTICAL STUDY FOR EFFECT OF REDUCING WATER VORACIOUS CROP AREAS ON THE CROPPING PATTERN STRUCTURE AND ITS WATER NEEDS
2017
Said Morsi | Salah Mekled | Alaa Esabea
The research aimed to study the effect of reducing water voracious crop areas, such as (rice, sugar cane, bananas, alfalfa) on the available water quantity in the agricultural sector, where the data analysis showed that the most of the voracious crops especially rice and sugar cane are concentrated at the old lands within the valley as it explained in the research later, therefore, the research focused on inventory and analysis of the old land data within the valley to determine the best alternatives of the cropping pattern which achieves the state's goal of saving water and maximizing the return of the water unit, and is compatible with the current local, regional and environmental water conditions and the future developments that may occur in the future, that by using linear programming, through three models that have been formulated: the first is minimizing water requirement, the second model maximizes the net of acre return, while the third model maximizes the return of the water unit, using available data published and unpublished issued by the concerned authorities. The research focused mainly on the possibility of reducing the water needs of cropping pattern as a main objective, in addition to increasing the self-sufficiency ratios of strategic crops through the first scenario, and increasing the areas of export crops to increase the export proceeds through the second scenario, as far as possible within the available water and land area in the study area, using different statistical models. The results of the analysis of the statistical models in the first scenario showed that the total quantity of irrigation water available for the cropping pattern of the study crops reached 41.483 billion m3, while 38,604, 38.726, 38.683 billion m3 were used for the statistical models respectively, this indicates that the required water quantities decreased by 2.879, 2.758, 2.800 billion m3, with a change rate of about 6.94, 6.65, 6.75% for the statistical models, respectively. The net return of the water unit for the actual cropping pattern reached about 1.634 LE/m3, while it reached about 1.755, 1.767, 1.765 LE/m3 for the statistical models respectively, which shows the increase in net return of water unit by 0.122, 0.133, 0.131 LE/m3, with a change rate of about 7.46, 8.17, 8.05%, for statistical models respectively. The second scenario aims beside minimizing the water needs of cropping pattern, increasing export crop areas such as onions, peanuts, potatoes, tomatoes and other vegetables as much as possible, assuming situation stability of foreign trade. The results of the analysis of the statistical models in the second scenario showed that the total quantity of irrigation water available for the cropping pattern was about 41.483 billion m3, while 38,471, 38.912, 38.803 billion m3 were used for the statistical models respectively, indicating that the required water quantities decreased by 3.013, 2.572, 2.681 billion m3, with a change rate of about 7.26, 6.20, 6.46%, for statistical models, respectively. The net return of the water unit for the actual cropping pattern was about 1.634 LE/m3, while it reached about 1.773, 1.830, 1.833 LE/m3 for the statistical models respectively, which shows the increase in the net return of water unit by 0.139, 0.197, 0.199 LE/m3, with a change rate of about 8.53, 12.04, 12.21%, for statistical models respectively. Crop rotations can be applied to the new lands using water savings including (wheat and maize), with an area ranging from 2048 to 2399 thousand feddans, and including (wheat and summer and nili vegetables), with an area ranging from 2941 to 3444 thousand acres, also including (maize, winter and nili vegetables), with an area ranging from 3432 to 4021 thousand feddans. With regard to the impact of reducing the area of water crops to water gap which reached about 20.9 billion m3, it decreased by about 2.879, 2.758, 2.800 billion m3, which make water gap decreased to about 18.02, 18.14, 18.10 billion m3, with change rate of about 3.77, 3.61, 3.66%, for statistical models respectively, while the results of the second scenario show decreased of about 3.013, 2.572, 2.681 billion m3, which make water gap decreased to about 17.89, 18.33, 18.22 billion m3, with change rate of about 3.94, 3.37 and 3.51% for statistical models respectively. The research recommends the following points: 1. Reduce the areas of rice, sugar cane and alfalfa to save a quantity of water ranging between 2.572 - 3.013 billion m3 of land within the valley. 2. Using of water savings resulting from reducing the areas of water crops to expand the cultivation of new land with strategic and monetary crops. 3. Sugar beet area can be expanded at least to the extent that it covers the shortage of sugar production caused by reducing the sugar cane area, then taking into account and study the effects resulting from that. 4. Modification of cropping patern structure to be in accordance with the local, regional, environmental situations that may affect current and future water availability.
Afficher plus [+] Moins [-]NONOSMOTIC EFFECT OF POLYETHYLENE GLYCOL ON PERCENT SURVIVAL AND GROWTH OF RICE
2017
S. Abouzied | Amal Abd El-latif
Salinity is one of the major environmental factors limiting crop productivity. For this reason, two greenhouse experiments were conducted in Faculty of Agriculture, Cairo University, Egypt, during the year 2015 using two rice varieties to evaluate the effects of various levels of osmotic stress caused by polyethylene-glycol 6000 (PEG) and NaCl. Furthermore, it was tested whether the inhibitory effect of salinity on growth, sodium and chloride concentration by two different varieties was greater under NaCl or PEG treatment. The first experiment was undertaken to separate osmotic and ionic aspects of salinity damage to rice (Oryza sativa L.).Seedlings of IR28 (salt-sensitive) and Nona Bokra (salt-tolerant) rice varieties were transferred to salinized nutrient solution containing 85 mol m-3NaCl (-3.0 bars) with or without PEG 6000 (-2.0 bars, 45 gL-1). Plants were grown up to 30 days in the salinized solutions. The second experiment was designed to determine the effect of salinity (85 mol m-3NaCl) with or without PEG 6000 (-0.5 bar, 11 g L-1)on growth, uptake and transport of sodium and chloride in two rice varieties differing in salt tolerance. The results indicated that survival of salt-tolerant variety (Nona Bokra) was increased significantly by adding PEG (-2.0 bars). The addition of PEG also reduced the rate of death of rice plants compared with NaCl alone. Also, data showed that PEG 6000 (0.5 bar, 11 gL-1) reduce sodium concentration in root of IR28 and Nona Bokra but its effect upon sodium concentration in shoot of the two varieties was more pronounced than the reduction of Na+ concentration in root. Highly significant differences were obtained between zero and 11 gL-1 PEG. The result of this study is strongly indicated that addition of PEG dramatically lessened the toxicity of NaCl to rice seedlings.
Afficher plus [+] Moins [-]CYTOTOXICITY OF IMIDACLOPRID AND MYCLOBUTANIL PESTICIDES ON THREE CANCER CELL LINES
2017
Shaimaa Mohamed | M. Abdel-Megeed | K. Mohamed | Naglaa Ebeed | A. Hammad
Three cancer cell lines, i.e. HEpG-2 (human liver carcinoma), MCF-7 (human breast adeno-carcinoma), and PC3 (Prostatic Small Cell Carcinoma) were used to determine the cytotoxic effects of the neonicotinoid insecticide (imidacloprid) and conazole fungicide (myclobutanil). Cytotoxicity was measured by neutral red incorporation (NRI) assay. The lowest concentration of the tested pesticides (0.5 μg/ml) was toxic. With the increase of the concentration up to 80 μg/ml, the Department of plant protection, Faculty of Agric., Ain Shams University, shoubra Elkheima, Cairo, Egypt Department of Genetics, Faculty of Agric., Ain Shams University, Cairo, Egypt damage degree of the cellular form and size was more serious. The midpoint cytotoxicity value, (NRI50) for imidacloprid and myclobutanil for HEpG-2, MCF-7, and PC3 cancer cell lines were 110.5, 67.7 and 67.6 μg/ml and 38.12, 41 and 27.5 μg/ml, respectively. In general, myclobutanil was very toxic in the three cancer cell lines compared with imidacloprid.
Afficher plus [+] Moins [-]STATISTICAL ESTIMATION OF PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS AND AGRICULTURAL COSTS AND MEASURES OF PRODUCTIVITY EFFICIENCY OF WATER USERS' ASSOCIATIONS OF DIFFERENT IRRIGATION SYSTEMS IN AL-BEHEIRA GOVERNORATE
2017
M. Ibraheim | M. Rehan | H. Sarhan | S. Makled
Egypt suffers from future risks due to lack of water especially in the downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan, which depend on the Nile water almost entirely and the upstream countries are moving to raise problems with Egypt and erect dams and pressure on Egypt to achieve the greatest economic benefit possible to prevent Egypt from horizontal agricultural expansion. Egypt is the largest and most dependent country on Nile water, with almost no rainfall. Groundwater is not renewable. Thus, the Nile water accounts for about 97% of Egypt's water resources and the share of the Egyptians is 55.5 billion m3, this quantity of water is insufficient to the needs of the population, and in order to maintain Egypt's per capita water, it needs about 80 billion m3, which means a deficit of 25 billion m3 and stability of Egypt's share of the Nile water under current local, regional and global conditions, and development of the appropriate strategy to alleviate the conflict with the basin countries Nile River so the study aimed to compare production efficiency and the economics of the irrigation systems used in the province of the lake through the study of water user associations in agriculture under the different irrigation patterns within water users association and outside association to rationalize the use of water and raising awareness to increase productivity. The results of the estimation indicated that the economic efficiency indicators of the maize and potato crop farmers in the sample of the field study show the preference of the use of the production function in the logarithmic formula to the different variables affecting the productivity of the crops according to the irrigation systems within the water user associations The results showed that the total production elasticity of maize crop was about 0.720, 0.530, 0.348 for sprinkler & drop, developed irrigation, and padded flooding systems, while the value of (R2) was about 0.76 , 0.60, 0.63 for irrigation systems respectively, The results showed that the total productivity of the potato crop was 1.127, 1.16, 1.318, for sprinkler & drop, developed irrigation, and padded flooding systems respectively, while the value of (R2) was about 0.76, 0.62, 0.70 for irrigation systems respectively. The relationship between the total costs and quantity produced of maize, which showed that the quadratic formula is the best formulas for the data, and the equations show that there is a statistically significant positive relationship between the total costs and production of maize in Behera Governorate. In the estimation of the optimal production volume, which reduces the costs is estimated at about 18.7, 22.1, 23.9 ardab/feddan, for sprinkler & drop, developed irrigation, and padded flooding systems respectively. In the estimation of the production volume which maximizes profit, the results showed that this volume was not reached, 29.1, 36.1, 31.9 ardab/feddan, for sprinkler & drop, developed irrigation, and padded flooding systems respectively. Calculating cost elasticity, it reached about 1.19, 0.804, 0.719, for sprinkler & drop, developed irrigation, and padded flooding systems respectively. In order to determine the optimal production volume of the potato crop, which reduces the costs, so make average cost equal marginal costs, estimated at 12.539, 11.377, 11.064 tons/fed, for sprinkler & drop, developed irrigation, and padded flooding systems respectively. The size of production of potato that maximizes profit was about 42,500, 33.350, 25.600 tons/fed, for sprinkler & drop, developed irrigation, and padded flooding systems respectively. Calculating the cost elasticity of the potato, it turned out that it was about 0.93, 0.804, 0.719 for sprinkler & drop, developed irrigation, and padded flooding systems respectively. Production efficiency measures are (7), the study of the efficiency of production of maize crop for members of water associations in the sample of the study in Behera Governorate. It was found that the members of the water users association of developed irrigation for in the feddan productivity of maize was exceeded, which was estimated at 23.01 ardab/feddan, while it reached about 19.05, 22.1 ardab/feddan for sprinkler & drop, and flooding systems respectively. Increase the total revenues of the members of water user associations to developed irrigation system for the maize crop, estimated at 8744.7 pounds/feddan while it reached about 7239, 8402.2 pounds/fed for members of the water associations that use sprinkler & drop, and flooding systems respectively. Increase in return of maize crop for members of water associations users of developed irrigation system, which amounted to about 3529.3 pounds while estimated at about 2204.8, 3270.1 pounds for members of water use associations for sprinkler & drop, and flooding systems respectively. Increase in the profitability of the pound for water use associations of developed irrigation system, which amounted to about 0.677 pounds, the ratio of the total return on the costs of the members of water use associations to flooding irrigation and developed irrigation, estimated at 2.03, 2.07 while estimated at 1.71 sprinkler irrigation, members of water user associations of the developed irrigation system was exceeded, where the return of cubic meter of water reached about 3.53 pounds, and the productivity of the cubic meter of water for the members of the water user associations showed that the irrigation system of sprinkling and drip was about 5.6 for maize crop. The members of water use associations of for sprinkler & drop irrigation in the potato productivity was exceeded, estimated at 11.250 tons/fed, increase the total income of The members of water use associations of irrigation sprinkling and drip of potato crop, estimated at about 33750 pounds/ fed, shows the increase yield of potato crop members of links irrigation sprinkler system, where reached about 11300 pound. Increase in the profitability of the pound for the members of sprinkler irrigation system, it was about LE 0.5. The members of the water users association of the sprinkler and drip irrigation system, was exceeded, where the return of the use of cubic meters of water was about 18.9 pounds. Showing the return of the use of cubic meters of water for the members of water users association for sprinkling irrigation system, which amounted to about 5.6, The cultivation of maize, and potatoes in the water users' associations was exceeded compared to the different irrigation system in all the centers in the study sample. The second scenario aims beside minimizing the water needs of cropping pattern, increasing export crop areas such as onions, peanuts, potatoes, tomatoes and other vegetables as much as possible, assuming situation stability of foreign trade. The results of the analysis of the statistical models in the second scenario showed that the total quantity of irrigation water available for the cropping pattern was about 41.483 billion m3, while 38,471, 38.912, 38.803 billion m3 were used for the statistical models respectively, indicating that the required water quantities decreased by 3.013, 2.572, 2.681 billion m3, with a change rate of about 7.26, 6.20, 6.46%, for statistical models, respectively. The net return of the water unit for the actual cropping pattern was about 1.634 LE/m3, while it reached about 1.773, 1.830, 1.833 LE/m3 for the statistical models respectively, which shows the increase in the net return of water unit by 0.139, 0.197, 0.199 LE/m3, with a change rate of about 8.53, 12.04, 12.21%, for statistical models respectively. Crop rotations can be applied to the new lands using water savings including (wheat and maize), with an area ranging from 2048 to 2399 thousand feddans, and including (wheat and summer and nili vegetables), with an area ranging from 2941 to 3444 thousand acres, also including (maize, winter and nili vegetables), with an area ranging from 3432 to 4021 thousand feddans. With regard to the impact of reducing the area of water crops to water gap which reached about 20.9 billion m3, it decreased by about 2.879, 2.758, 2.800 billion m3, which make water gap decreased to about 18.02, 18.14, 18.10 billion m3, with change rate of about 3.77, 3.61, 3.66%, for statistical models respectively, while the results of the second scenario show decreased of about 3.013, 2.572, 2.681 billion m3, which make water gap decreased to about 17.89, 18.33, 18.22 billion m3, with change rate of about 3.94, 3.37 and 3.51% for statistical models respectively. The research recommends the following points: 1. Reduce the areas of rice, sugar cane and alfalfa to save a quantity of water ranging between 2.572 - 3.013 billion m3 of land within the valley. 2. Using of water savings resulting from reducing the areas of water crops to expand the cultivation of new land with strategic and monetary crops. 3. Sugar beet area can be expanded at least to the extent that it covers the shortage of sugar production caused by reducing the sugar cane area, then taking into account and study the effects resulting from that. 4. Modification of cropping patern structure to be in accordance with the local, regional, environmental situations that may affect current and future water availability.
Afficher plus [+] Moins [-]ANALYTICAL STUDY FOR PREDICTING PRODUCTION, NATIONAL CONSUMPTION AND SELF-SUFFICIENCY RATES OF THE MOST IMPORTANT LEGUME CROPS IN EGYPT
2017
Sanaa Sadek
The United Nations announced in 2016 was as international year for Legumes crops. As a part of sustainable food production, legumes are playing a vital role in Egypt for providing people with their needs from plant protein and amino acids. In general, Egypt suffers a gap between domestic production of legumes and consumption needs, particularly of Faba bean, and lentil. Thus, self sufficiency ratios reached 39% and 1.6% for both crops in 2014 respectively ([1]). Consequently, the imported amounts from both products were increasing during 1993 and 2014. So that the average of import value of Faba bean reached to LE 1.7 milliards alone, while lentil reached to LE 583.4 millions during 2010 and 2014, which represent about 66.2% and 22.3% respectively from the average import value of legume crops. Due to spread Balkiros injury in 2011, the cultivated area and domestic production of Faba bean has been significantly declined so that import value was increased. While, Faba bean domestic production represents about 78% of total legumes production, lentil represents only 1.3% as average of the period (1993-2014)([2]). The present paper aims to: (a) Identify the most important productivity and consumption indicators for leguminous crops in Egypt by using the equations of general time trend during the period (1993-2014). (b) Analyze statistical methods for predicting the most important economic indicators for legumes during the future period (2015-2024). ARIMA models were used to forecast production, consumption, and self-sufficiency after eliminating time series non-stationary and transferring it into stability or stationary series. This was done to be able to use PC-application econometric software package E-views 8 program. (c) Review, explain and interpret the results of ARIMA forecasting and the general time trend models as guidelines to draw agricultural production policy for legumes. ([1]) Ministry of Agriculture and land reclamation, economic affairs sector, the Central Administration of Agricultural Economics, Public Administration of agricultural economic resources, food balance sheets, various issues. ([2] ) Ministry of Agriculture and land reclamation, economic affairs sector, the Central Administration of Agricultural Economics, Foreign trade of agricultural exports and imports Bulletin, various issues.
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