Objective-To assess estimated effectiveness of control and eradication procedures for foot-andmouth disease (FMD) in a region of California. Sample Population-2,238 herds and 5 sale yards in Fresno, Kings, and Tulare counties of California. Procedure-A spatial stochastic model was used to simulate hypothetical epidemics of FMD for specified control scenarios that included a baseline eradication strategy mandated by USDA and supplemental control strategies of slaughter or vaccination of all animals within a specified distance of infected herds, slaughter of only high-risk animals identified by use of a model simulation, and expansion of infected and surveillance zones. Results-Median number of herds affected varied from 1 to 385 (17% of all herds), depending on type of index herd and delay in diagnosis of FMD. Percentage of herds infected decreased from that of the baseline eradication strategy by expanding the designated infected area from 10 to 20 km (48%), vaccinating within a 50-km radius of an infected herd (41%), slaughtering the 10 highest-risk herds for each infected herd (39%), and slaughtering all animals within 5 km of an infected herd (24%). Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-Results for the model provided a means of assessing the relative merits of potential strategies for control and eradication of FMD should it enter the US livestock population. For the study region, preemptive slaughter of highest-risk herds and vaccination of all animals within a specified distance of an infected herd consistently decreased size and duration of an epidemic, compared with the baseline eradication strategy.

The time available to implement successful control measures against epidemics was estimated. Critical response time (CRT), defined as the time interval within which the number of epidemic cases remains stationary (so that interventions implemented within CRT may be the most effective or least costly), was assessed during the early epidemic phase, when the number of cases grows linearly over time. The CRT was calculated from data of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic that occurred in Uruguay. Significant regional CRT differences (ranging from 1.4 to 2.7 days) were observed. The CRT may facilitate selection of control measures. For instance, a CRT equal to 3 days would support the selection of measures, such as stamping-out, implementable within 3 days, but rule out measures, such as post-outbreak vaccination, because intervention and immunity building require more than 3 days. Its use in rapidly disseminating diseases, such as FMD, may result in regionalized decision-making.