Introduction: The purpose of the study was to determine and model the growth rates of L. monocytogenes in cooked cured ham stored at various temperatures. Material and Methods: Samples of cured ham were artificially contaminated with a mixture of three L. monocytogenes strains and stored at 3, 6, 9, 12, or 15°C for 16 days. The number of listeriae was determined after 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 12, 14, and 16 days. A series of decimal dilutions were prepared from each sample and plated onto ALOA agar, after which the plates were incubated at 37°C for 48 h under aerobic conditions. The bacterial counts were logarithmised and analysed statistically. Five repetitions of the experiment were performed. Results: Both storage temperature and time were found to significantly influence the growth rate of listeriae (P < 0.01). The test bacteria growth curves were fitted to three primary models: the Gompertz, Baranyi, and logistic. The mean square error (MSE) and Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) were calculated to evaluate the goodness of fit. It transpired that the logistic model fit the experimental data best. The natural logarithms of L. monocytogenes’ mean growth rates from this model were fitted to two secondary models: the square root and polynomial. Conclusion: Modelling in both secondary types can predict the growth rates of L. monocytogenes in cooked cured ham stored at each studied temperature, but mathematical validation showed the polynomial model to be more accurate.

Objective-To use mathematical modeling to assess the effectiveness of control strategies for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus on a swine farm. Sample-A hypothetical small, medium, or large farrow-to-weaning swine farm in the Midwestern United States. Procedures-Stochastic models were formulated to simulate an outbreak of PRRS on a farm. Control strategies assessed in those models included none (baseline) and various combinations of mass immunization, herd closure, and gilt acclimatization. Nine different models resulting from the combination of low, moderate, or high PRRS virus virulence and small, medium, or large herd size were simulated. A stabilized status, the outcome of interest, was defined as the absence of positive PCR assay results for PRRS virus in 3-week-old piglets. For each scenario, the percentage of simulations with a stabilized status was used as a proxy for the probability of disease control. Results-Increasing PRRS virus virulence and herd size were negatively associated with the probability of achieving a stabilized status. Repeated mass immunization with herd closure or gilt acclimitization was a better alternative than was single mass immunization for disease control within a farm. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-Repeated mass immunization with a PRRS modified-live virus vaccine with herd closure or gilt acclimitization was the scenario most likely to achieve a stabilized status. Estimation of the cost of various PRRS control strategies is necessary.

Several investigators have suggested that the conventional multicompartmental exponential analysis of in vivo glucose metabolism is arbitrary and possibly not the most accurate description of glucose kinetics, especially in the large animal. In support of that hypothesis, we found that in a systematic comparison of 3 methods, blood-specific radioactivity data in single-injection studies of glucose metabolism in lactating cows was better described graphically, or by a hybrid polynomial-biexponential curve fit, than by an exclusively exponential curve fit. We hypothesized that this finding was attributable to partial failure of linearity and steady-state assumptions that underlie the exponential model. Second, using both an irreversible tracer (3H-labeled glucose) and reversible tracer (14C-labeled glucose), we found that glucose carbon recycling had no effect during the first 2 hours, but became significant in lactating cows 7 hours after injection. Finally, we determined that approximately 52 to 55% of the glucose replacement rate was being used to generate lactose.

A survey of 1,965 equine colic cases was conducted from August 1985 to July 1986 at 10 equine referral centers located throughout the United States. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a multivariable model for the need for surgery. Two-thirds of the cases were randomly selected for model development (1,336), whereas the remaining cases (629) were used only for subsequent validation of the model. If a lesion requiring surgical correction was found at either surgery or necropsy, the case for the horse was classified as surgical, otherwise the case was classified as medical. Only variables that were significant (P < 0.05) in an initial bivariable screening procedure were considered in the model development. Because of the large number of missing values in the data set, only variables for which there were < 400 missing values were considered in the multivariable analysis. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed by use of a stepwise algorithm. The model used 640 cases and included variables: rectal findings, signs of abdominal pain, peripheral pulse strength, and abdominal sounds. The likelihood ratio for surgery was calculated for each horse in the validation data set, using the logistic regression equation. Using Bayes theorem, the posttest probability was calculated, using the likelihood ratio as the test odds and the prevalence of surgery cases (at each institution) as an estimate of the pretest odds. A Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit X2 statistic indicated that the model fit the validation data set poorly, as demonstrated by the large X2 value of 26.7 (P < 0.001). However, when the expected proportion of surgical cases was compared with the observed proportion of surgical cases in each of 10 increments of risk, the model's performance appeared satisfactory.

A fully age-structured deterministic model of the population biology of a pseudorabies epizootic in a farrow-to-finish operation was used to examine the disease-related change in productivity following the initial disease episode. A strategy involving continual sow vaccination was compared with various strategies involving the vaccination of growing pigs, as well as sows. The model suggests that vaccinating growing pigs, in addition to the breeding herd, results in only a relatively small improvement in long-term productivity following a pseudorabies epizootic.

A deterministic mathematical model of the population biology of pseudorabies in swine was used to clarify some of the basic features of the host-virus relationship and to inquire into the circumstances that promote or impede virus persistence in a single herd. When the basic reproductive rate of the infection (ie, the number of secondary infections resulting from the introduction of a single infective animal into a wholly susceptible herd) is greater than unity, the model suggests that the number of infective individuals in the herd will undergo highly damped oscillations to a final equilibrium level. The most important determinants of virus persistence are herd size and the density at which sows are maintained. There is a threshold density of susceptible individuals below which the virus will eventually be eliminated from the herd, even when specific control measures are lacking. Test and removal strategies hasten virus elimination when herd density is already below threshold, but are otherwise likely to succeed only when the removal of latent infections reduces the basic reproductive rate of the infection below unity. Vaccination strategies may also result in virus elimination, but only in relatively small herds.

OBJECTIVE To identify whether age, sex, or breed is associated with crown height of the left and right maxillary first molar tooth (M1) measured on CT images, to develop a mathematical model to determine age of horses by use of M1 crown height, and to determine the correlation between M1 crown height measured on radiographic and CT images. SAMPLE CT (n = 735) and radiographic images (35) of the heads of horses. PROCEDURES Crown height of left and right M1 was digitally measured on axial CT views. Height was measured on a lateral radiographic image when available. Linear regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with crown height. Half the data set was subsequently used to generate a regression model to predict age on the basis of M1 crown height, and the other half was used to validate accuracy of the predictions. RESULTS M1 crown height decreased with increasing age, but the rate of decrease slowed with increasing age. Height also differed by sex and breed. The model most accurately reflected age of horses < 10 years old, although age was overestimated by a mean of 0.1 years. The correlation between radiographic and CT crown height of M1 was 0.91; the mean for radiographic measurements was 2.5 mm greater than for CT measurements. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE M1 crown height can be used to predict age of horses. Results for CT images correlated well with those for radiographic images. Studies are needed to develop a comparable model with results for radiographic images.

OBJECTIVE To determine values of perfusion parameters determined via MRI in the brains of healthy dogs. ANIMALS 10 healthy adult Beagles. PROCEDURES Each dog was anesthetized for MRI examination of the brain, including standard sequences and a perfusion-weighted sequence. Gadoteric acid (0.2 mmol/kg) was injected IV at a rate of 5 mL/s. A dedicated workstation was used to measure the times from contrast medium injection to arrival at an ROI (TO) and peak contrast enhancement (TTP), mean contrast medium transport time (MTT), and cerebral blood flow (CBF) in the caudate nucleus, thalamus, piriform lobe, hippocampus, semioval center, and temporal cerebral cortex. A simple mathematical model was used to compare parameter values among the various brain regions. RESULTS T0 and time to peak contrast enhancement had a significant linear relationship. A significant negative correlation was identified between T0 and CBF and, to a lesser extent, between MTT and CBF. Differences among brain regions were significant for MTT and CBF. The CBF was lowest in the semioval center, and the piriform lobe had almost 2-fold the CBF of that region. No significant differences were identified between hemispheres of the brain. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Findings obtained in this study involving healthy dogs may serve as a reference for MRI perfusion measurements in specific brain regions and may help in the characterization of various brain diseases in dogs.

The objective of this study was to analyze data from the planned national serological monitoring program for Aujeszky's disease (AD) using a simulation model to evaluate probable outcomes expected in the sample derived from the simulated herds at predefined within-herd prevalence and herd prevalence. Additionally, prevalence at animal- and herd-level estimated by the stochastic simulation model based on the distributions of the proportion of infected herds and test-positive animals was compared with those of data from a national serological survey in 2006, in which 106,762 fattening pigs from 5,325 herds were tested for AD using a commercial ELISA kit. A fixed value of 95% was used for test sensitivity, and the specificity was modeled with a minimum, most likely and maximum of 95, 97 and 99%, respectively. The within-herd prevalence and herd prevalence was modeled using Pert and Triang distributions, respectively with a minimum, most likely and maximum point values. In all calulations, population size of 1,000 was used due to lack of representative information. The mean number of infected herds and true test-positives was estimated to be 27 herds (median=25; 95% percentile 44) and 214 pigs (median=196; 95% percentile 423), respectively. When testing 20 pigs (mean of 2006 survey) in each herd, there was a 3.3% probability that the potential for false-positive reactions due to less than 100% specificity of the ELISA test would be detected. It was found that the model showed prevalence of 0.21% (99% percentile 0.50%) and 0.5% (99% percentile 0.99%) at animal- and herd-level, respectively. These rates were much similar to data from the 2006 survey (0.62% versus 0.83%). The overall mean herd-level sensitivity of the 2006 survey for fattening pigs was 99.9%, with only a 0.2% probability of failing to detect at least one infected herd.

A series of coupled differential equations was used to model the temporal dynamics of rabies in raccoons in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. The model takes explicit account of the development of natural immunity to rabies and was used to evaluate culling and vaccination elimination strategies. For habitats typical of the mid-Atlantic states, and given the assumptions of the model, it was estimated that elimination of rabies in raccoons by culling may involve the annual removal of over 32% of the raccoon population or the yearly vaccination of up to 99% of the susceptible fraction. Assuming a constant marginal cost for both culling and vaccination, the model suggests that, whatever the actual cost of each method, the cheapest strategy will always involve either culling or vaccination alone. A combined strategy of culling and vaccination will be cheaper than culling alone only when the per capita cost of vaccination is around one-fifth or less the per capita cost of culling.