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Identification and Analysis of Key Drivers of Change in Regional Land Use Planning based on Foresight Approach in Gorgan Township Texte intégral
2019
Sedighi, Elham | Salman Mahini, Abdolrassoul | Mirkarimi, Seyed Hamed | Daliri, Hassan | Fath, Brian
Foresight analysis in land-use planning lets decision makers overcome complexity and reduce uncertainty through a focus on key drivers. This study attempts to identify the most important drivers of change in land use/cover planning in Gorgan Township with the participation of managers and academic experts towards a desired future. The approach is normative and the required data were obtained through investigation of scientific literature and land-use planning documents of Golestan Province. Interviews and meetings with experts also inform the process. Following a literature review, 77 effective factors on the future of land use/cover in the Province were identified. Among these, 22 representative factors were selected according to expert opinions. Two groups, totaling 70 people, consisting of managers of organizations in Golestan Province with links to land use planning and academic experts were asked to answer an online or in-person questionnaire of the effective factors. The structural analysis and cross-impact matrix were applied to the data. According to the result, the factors “Imperative policies”, “Technology”, “Governmental Services” and “Transportation and energy infrastructure” are the key drivers of change in land use/cover and affect the implementation of land-use planning in Gorgan Township. Both groups approved the "Imperative policies" as the most significant key driver which can affect other factors.
Afficher plus [+] Moins [-]Investigation of regional resilience using spatial analysis and WASPAS hybrid model (Case Study: Townships of Khuzestan Province) Texte intégral
2018
Faraji, Amin | Arvin, Mahmoud | Atash-Afrooz, Nasrin
Natural and human hazards have caused vulnerability and resilience concepts receive much attention. Investigating the vulnerability and resilience of cities and regions shows the readiness and capacity of cities and regions to reduce the effects of disasters. If the situation of the city and the region is high in terms of resilience, Infrastructure, economic and social conditions of the residents have the ability to recover and return faster to a state of equilibrium. Besides, emergency services would be done properly. In this research, resilience was investigated on a regional scale with the purpose of assessment regional resilience dimensions in the townships of Khuzestan province. The research method is analytical-descriptive and in terms of purpose is applied. The data were extracted from the Planning and Budget Organization of Khuzestan Province`s database. The data are divided into economic, social, infrastructural, health, and environmental dimensions and 26 indicators. In order to analyze the data and weigh indices, Shanon entropy was employed. The townships were then ranked by use of WASPAS technique. The results showed that Ahvaz, Dezful, Khorramshahr, Shadegan, Shoosh, Azadegan, Shoshtar, Abadan, Izeh, Ramhormoz, Andimeshk, Behbahan, Baghmalek, Mahshahr, Ramshir, Omidieh, Karoun, Hamidieh, Masjed Soleiman, Bawi, Gotwand, Lali, Hendijan, Indica, Haftkel, Hoveiza, and Aghajari ranked 1st to 27th respectively. Undoubtedly, based on the Khuzestan province`s special position and its multi-cultural aspect, despite its rich natural resources, border situation and putting away the resiliency would result in a big crisis for the whole system. Also, the results showed that Khuzestan province resiliency related to spatial inequality.
Afficher plus [+] Moins [-]Identifying and Analyzing the Influence of Driving Forces on the Regional Development of Alborz Province with the Scenario-Based Planning Approach Texte intégral
2018
Rahnama, Mohammad Rahim | Shakarami, Kiyan | Abbasi, Hamed
The present study uses a structural analysis method to seek out the most likely scenarios for the development of Alborz province on the horizon of 2032. The required data and information for the research have been collected through a territorial development study (Survey Questionnaire) as well as expert interviews within the framework of the Delphi model. The statistical samples of the study were 30 employees of relevant institutions and urban-regional researchers. For data analysis, MICMAC software has been used to analyze the interactions of variables, and Morphol software has been used to compile scenarios. Finally, the results showed that the issue of water resources and drought, and the issue of the destruction of gardens of the province are due to the irregularity of construction. Similarly, the issue of industrial production, environmental pollution increase, and the burnout of factories in the horizon of 2032, with three replications of the catastrophe scenario in the developed scenarios are three serious and major threats for the development of Alborz province up to the horizon of 2032. Nonetheless, the capability of being at the neighborhood of Tehran province and the use of demographic, economic, and other capacities of Tehran province in all three scenarios were identified as the desirable scenarios. Also, in each of the three scenarios, the capabilities of the "big and strategic industries" and "province tourism" were identified as the most intermediate scenarios, which indicates the importance of these three capabilities in the development of the province in the horizon of 2032.
Afficher plus [+] Moins [-]Evaluating Ecological Networks of Urban Landscape (Case Study: Karaj Metropolis) Texte intégral
2018
Mohammadyari, Fatemeh | Mirsanjari, Mir Mehrdad | Zarandian, Ardovan
Landscape fragmentation is the most important challenge in urban development. This challenge prevents the flow of materials and energy in the region. These changes affect ecological characteristics. In this regard, ecological networks are considered as tools for conservation planning. Therefore, satellite images were used in the years 2006, 2011 and 2017 to evaluate the ecological networks of Karaj Metropolis. The Classification and preparation of land map conducted based on land cover and with the support vector machine algorithm. Landmarks were also used to assess the status quo and the process of changing heterogeneity, continuity, and communication-isolation networks in previous years. The results showed that the trend of criteria changing in the study area is not desirable. The inappropriate process of changing of Space landscape heterogeneity criteria, the conjunction of the same spots across the land, and the optimal communication reduce the ecological function and the consequence is a decline in the sustainability of ecological networks. Also, due to the decreasing trend of metrics in green spots, especially human green, and the increasing trend of metrics in construction and open spots, in sum, it can be concluded that the ecological function and the ecological network characteristics of the landscape are following a descending trend.
Afficher plus [+] Moins [-]Redefining the Role of Small- and Middle-Sized Cities in the Regional Development Process; Introducing a Spatial Based Applied Method (Case Study: Kurdistan Province) Texte intégral
2018
Ghorbani, Ramin | Pourahmad, Ahmad | Hatami Nezhad, Hossein
Much quantitative research (and some qualitative cases) has been done on the role of small- and medium-sized cities in regional development. The present article is also in this line, but with a slight change in the structure of the breakdown in the approach to the subject and the analysis of the problem, and the multi-faceted analysis of the data using the Fuzzy Inference System. The purpose of this research, with regard to the title, is developmental-applicable and has a descriptive-analytical approach. The FIS application and increasing approach has four stages (in general): its Database and Fuzzification; the rules base; the engine; and the Defuzzification. In the glimpse (Knowledge Base), regional development indicators (10 indicators) and variables (more than 70 variables) in four pillars of regional development (economic, physical, infrastructure and human development) for the small- and middle-sized cities of Kurdistan province (9 cities of the city centers Except for Saravabad) were selected and mapped in 2006 and 2016, and then a detailed analysis of the process was performed on the data. The final result of this paper is that although fluctuations in the development of the inland region of the province have been observed, regional development changes (relying on economic indicators) have been consistent with changes in the urban hierarchy (demographic projections). Thus, with the decline of concentration and concentration in Sanandaj, we see an increase in the role of small- and middle-sized towns in the urban-regional development of the province.
Afficher plus [+] Moins [-]Investigating the Dimensions of Water Scarcity Using the Water Poverty Index (WPI) and its Comparative Analysis in Qom District Texte intégral
2018
Talebi, Hossein | Amini, Abbas
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the situation in Qom and its regions in terms of the water poverty index, which identifies the zonal differences and the dimensions and strengths and weaknesses of each. The basis for determining the Water Poverty Index is the Sullivan method, which is a weight linear combination of components (resources, costs, environment, capacity, and access). The required data were collected through related organizations and analyzed in the framework of this method. There is a difference between the five sections of the county in terms of poverty. Weakness in resources is a common feature among zones, which is significant in some zones and moderate in the others. Also, in terms of human capacity, almost all regions have a good status that can be regarded as a strength. Water consumption management, as the most important option, should be at the forefront of planning and considering the inability to expand water resources. Currently, more than twice as much of renewable water resources are being extracted. The best way to manage water poverty is to make optimal use of available resources and capacities and to focus on research principles, rather than the expansion of water resources in a variety of ways, which can increase the territorial imbalances, domestic disturbance, and lack of control on consumption and so on.
Afficher plus [+] Moins [-]Analysis of Barriers & factors affecting the implementation of projects & spatial planning in Tehran province Texte intégral
2017
taghvaee, masoud | bekmohammadi, hasan | Zali, Nader | Kasaei, Mitra
Studies on spatial planning in Iranian history has experienced more than seven decades of programming, But has never been implemented and a firm determination for its operation has not been seen so far. This is an applied and developmental research, descriptive and analytical in method. research and data collection has been made through questionnaires and Delphi techniques. In this study, using cross-impact analysis and cross-impact matrix software to perform complex calculations were performed MICMAC. The results showed ,effective factors on implementation of spatial planning; Tehran province is regional political polarization, Tehran as a development pole in this province and being placed on the west to east and north to south corridors and the necessity of the province interaction with neighbor regions was determined and suitable solutions to overcome barriers in the way of implementing spatial planning in Tehran province, have been suggested in this study.
Afficher plus [+] Moins [-]Prediction the Most Suitable of Agricultural Zones in the Tajan Watershed Using Multi Criteria Evaluation (MCE) Approach Texte intégral
2017
Rajaei, Fatemeh | Esmaili, Abbas | Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul | Delavar, Majid | Gholipour, Mostafa | Massah Bavani, Alireza
In recent decades almost of land use changes without taking capabilities and limitations of environmental have caused environmental problems and known forms of soil degradation and aquatic ecosystem pollution. The purpose of this investigation is determining how to mitigate the effects of future land use changes in Tajan watershed by investigating ecological potential as a strategy for natural resource conservation. Therefore, the land change modeling (LCM) was used for the analysis of possible future land useand then using Geographic Information System (GIS) and multi-criteria analysis (linear weighted combination) was determined the most sustainability of agricultural areas. The results showed that during the period from 2010 to 2040, 34 739 hectares of forest land use were declined and 27 071 and 7668 hectares of agricultural lands and pastures will increase respectively and the 3473 hectares of the most susceptible areas possible change from forest to agriculture and pasture were extracted. So expect to assessing changes land use based on the ecological potential in the future can protect Hyrcanian forests for the prevention of unprincipled changes in the coming period in this region.
Afficher plus [+] Moins [-]Land Cover Change Modeling based on Artificial Neural Networks and transmission potential method in LCM (Case Study: Forests Gilan-e Gharb, Kermanshah Province) Texte intégral
2017
Parma, Rohollah | Maleknia, Rahim | Shataee, Shaban | Naghavi, Hamed
In order to land cover change modeling and detect to possibility of predict the future trend of Land Change modeler (LCM) was used. VNIR Data ASTER Sensor of TERRA satellite with spatial resolution of 15m for three periods 2000, 2007 and 2016 from Gilan-e-Gharb forests of Kermanshah province were analyzed. Land cover maps of years 2000, 2007 and 2016 four categories: forest cover, pasture lands, agricultural lands and built-up area areas for each of images were extracted. The results of data analysis in the first period (2000-2007) and the second period (2007-2016) showed the greatest increase in agricultural lands and pasture lands have the greatest decrease area. Based on these changes and by taking eight independent variable, transition potential modeling of 2016 was done using Artificial Neural Network. Then by hard predict model and images were classified of first period (2000- 2007), the land cover map in 2016 using Land Change Modeler was predicted. After evaluating the model, 83.09 and 71.10 overall accuracy was obtained for the first and second periods showed the consistency between prediction map and classified map of year 2016. The land cover maps by entering the second period (2007-2016) to Land Change Modeler the land.
Afficher plus [+] Moins [-]Integration assessment of the protected areas using landscape ecological approach (Case Study: Kolah Ghazy National Park and Wildlife Refuge) Texte intégral
2017
Barati, Behzad | Jahani, Ali | Zebardast, Lobat | Rayegani, Behzad
Landscape fragmentation, due to the roads construction, urban infrastructure development and other land uses, seems to be in result of the loss of habitat in protected areas. Indeed, Landscape fragmentation causes a huge negative impact on wildlife, including important species. In result, the monitoring and management of protected areas, through the landscape ecology and quantification of fragmentation, will be so applicable. This research aims to quantify the landscape fragmentation in Kolah Ghazy national Park and wildlife refuge. To achieve this purpose, RS and GIS techniques were used to extract land uses in studied area and then landscape fragmentation was quantified using landscape metrics (CA, CAP, TE, MSI, NP, MPS and MNN) in class level. The results cleared that rich rangeland patches have been more integrated, but the incompatible land uses, such as mining, agriculture and urban infrastructure development make these patches to be more far away from each other, so, reduction of incompatible land uses is recommended in the region.
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