The Central-West region of Argentina was seriously affected by a series of convective summer storms on January–February of 2013 generating many debris flows and rockfall in the Central Andes mountain regions. In particular, the unreported 8th February event caused the sad death of a 10-year-old child being completely ignored by society and local authorities. Despite this, meteorological conditions associated with this event and further episodes were rarely measured and determined mainly due to scarce meteorological stations in Andean mountain areas. In this paper, meteorological data from CMORPH algorithm and measurements of surrounding gauges were analyzed for estimating the triggering precipitation value of this event. As well, the particular debris flow channeled into the main branch of the Amarilla gully in the Agua Negra valley was geomorphologically described. The amount of precipitation associated with this debris flow was 5.5 and 13.2 mm accumulated previous to the event. This violent debris flow was generated in a talus zone in a periglacial environment located just below a covered rock glacier. However, the influence of the permafrost thawing in this process is not feasible. The altitude of the 0 °C isotherm was lower during the previous days of the event, and no monitoring on permafrost is available for this area. The volume of removed mass was estimated in 5 × 10⁴ m³, and the mean velocity was 35 km/h. Boulders of 4 m diameter were found in the source area, while the deposit is up to 75% sandy with clasts that hardly exceed 10 cm in the alluvial fan distal part. Herein the main objective is to advice about the probable catastrophic impact of similar events in the future. These findings could be useful for hazard remediation, mitigation, and prevention plans for the Agua Negra international pass under construction.

Nonlinear complex behavior of pore-water pressure responses to rainfall was modelled using support vector regression (SVR). Pore-water pressure can rise to disturbing levels that may result in slope failure during or after rainfall. Traditionally, monitoring slope pore-water pressure responses to rainfall is tedious and expensive, in that the slope must be instrumented with necessary monitors. Data on rainfall and corresponding responses of pore-water pressure were collected from such a monitoring program at a slope site in Malaysia and used to develop SVR models to predict pore-water pressure fluctuations. Three models, based on their different input configurations, were developed. SVR optimum meta-parameters were obtained using k-fold cross validation and a grid search. Model type 3 was adjudged the best among the models and was used to predict three other points on the slope. For each point, lag intervals of 30 min, 1 h and 2 h were used to make the predictions. The SVR model predictions were compared with predictions made by an artificial neural network model; overall, the SVR model showed slightly better results. Uncertainty quantification analysis was also performed for further model assessment. The uncertainty components were found to be low and tolerable, with d-factor of 0.14 and 74 % of observed data falling within the 95 % confidence bound. The study demonstrated that the SVR model is effective in providing an accurate and quick means of obtaining pore-water pressure response, which may be vital in systems where response information is urgently needed.

Groundwater recharge (GR) is a complex process that is difficult to quantify. Increasing attention has been given to unsaturated zone modeling to estimate GR and better understand the processes controlling it. Continuous soil-moisture time series have been shown to provide valuable information in this regard. The objectives of this study were to (i) analyze the processes and factors controlling GR in an unconfined granular aquifer in a cold and humid environment and (ii) assess the uncertainties associated with the use of data from different sources. Soil moisture data monitored over three years at three experimental sites in southern Quebec (Canada) were used to calibrate the HYDRUS-1D model and to estimate ranges of possible GR in a region where groundwater is increasingly used as a source of fresh water. The simulations identified and quantified important factors responsible for the near-surface water balance that leads to GR. The resulting GR estimates from 2016 to 2018 showed marked differences between the three sites, with values ranging from 347 to 735 mm/y. Mean GR for the three sites was 517 mm/y for 2016–2018 and 455 mm/y for the previous 12-year period. GR was shown to depend on monthly variations in precipitation and on soil textural parameters in the root zone, both controlling soil-water retention and evapotranspiration. Monthly recharge patterns showed distinct preferential GR periods during the spring snowmelt (38–45% of precipitation) and in the fall (29% of precipitation). The use of different meteorological datasets was shown to influence the GR estimates.

This report presents the World Bank Group's experience in climate and disaster resilient development and contends that it is essential to eliminate extreme poverty and achieve shared prosperity by 2030. The report argues for closer collaboration between the climate resilience and disaster risk management communities through the incorporation of climate and disaster resilience into broader development processes. Selected case studies are used to illustrate promising approaches, lessons learned, and remaining challenges all in contribution to the loss and damage discussions under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The introduction provides an overview of the UNFCCC and also introduces key concepts and definitions relevant to climate and disaster resilient development. Section two describes the impacts of globally increasing weather-related disasters in recent decades. Section three summarizes how the World Bank Group's goals to end extreme poverty and boost shared prosperity are expected to be affected by rising disaster losses in a changing climate. Section four discusses the issue of attribution in weather-related disasters, and the additional start-up costs involved in climate and disaster resilient development. Section five builds upon the processes and instruments developed by the climate resilience and the disaster risk management communities of practice to provide some early lessons learned in this increasingly merging field. Section six highlights case studies and emerging good practices in climate and disaster resilient development. Section seven concludes the report, summarizing key lessons learned and identifying potential gaps and avenues for future work. | En el informe “Crear resiliencia mediante la integración de los riesgos climáticos y de desastre en el proceso de desarrollo” se muestra por qué es esencial desarrollar la resiliencia al clima para poder alcanzar los objetivos del Grupo del Banco Mundial de poner fin a la pobreza extrema y promover la prosperidad compartida. En este resumen ejecutivo se hace un llamado a la comunidad internacional del desarrollo a trabajar en diversas disciplinas y sectores con el propósito de generar una mayor resiliencia de largo plazo, reducir los riesgos y evitar mayores costos en el futuro. Se hace hincapié en la necesidad de crear instituciones y dotarlas de los medios para emprender la continua labor que se requiere para lograr un desarrollo en que se tenga en cuenta la resiliencia al clima y a los desastres. Al destacar las mejores prácticas, el informe muestra cómo los instrumentos financieros y los programas de intervención, sumados a la experiencia y conocimientos especializados en preparación para casos de desastre adquiridos durante décadas, están ayudando a las naciones a prepararse para un mundo más expuesto a los cambios. Asimismo, en el informe se reconoce que un desarrollo con tales características tiene costos iniciales adicionales, que se amortizan en el largo plazo si se actúa correctamente. En este contexto, el informe propugna una colaboración más estrecha entre las comunidades responsables de crear resiliencia al clima y las encargadas de administrar los riesgos de desastre, y la incorporación de la resiliencia al clima y a los desastres en los procesos de desarrollo en sentido más amplio. Presenta estudios de casos seleccionados para mostrar algunos enfoques promisorios, las lecciones aprendidas y los desafíos que aún existen. | Le présent rapport explique pourquoi le renforcement de la résistance aux chocs climatiques est une condition essentielle à la réalisation des objectifs du Groupe de la Banque mondiale — mettre fin à la pauvreté extrême et promouvoir une prospérité partagée — et pourquoi il devrait constituer la clé de voûte du programme mondial de développement. À défaut d’aider les pays, les régions et les villes pauvres et vulnérables à se préparer et à s’adapter aux risques climatiques actuels et futurs, nous risquons de mettre en péril des décennies d’acquis du développement. Nous espérons que ce rapport, en s’appuyant sur l’expérience de la Banque mondiale en matière de résistance aux chocs climatiques et de préparation aux catastrophes naturelles, contribuera utilement au débat international en cours sur les moyens de lutte contre les pertes et les dommages occasionnés par le changement climatique. Le rapport reconnaît cependant qu’un tel développement exige au départ des financements supplémentaires qui s’avéreront rentables à long terme si les choses sont faites correctement. Dans ce contexte, le rapport préconise un renforcement de la collaboration entre les collectivités engagées dans l’application de mesures de résistance aux chocs climatiques et de gestion des risques de catastrophe, ainsi que l’intégration de ces mesures dans le cadre plus large de leurs processus de développement. Le rapport s’appuie sur diverses études de cas pour illustrer les démarches prometteuses, les enseignements tirés de l’expérience et les difficultés qui restent à surmonter. Le rapport entend contribuer au débat engagé dans le cadre de la Convention-cadre des Nations Unies sur les changements climatiques au sujet des pertes et des préjudices liés aux effets néfastes des changements climatiques. Il s’adresse principalement aux professionnels du développement et aux décideurs nationaux qui doivent composer avec le défi posé par une aggravation possible des catastrophes causées par l’évolution graduelle des conditions climatiques moyennes et extrêmes.

The Guanzhong Basin in central China features a booming economy and has suffered severe drought, resulting in serious groundwater depletion in the last 30 years. As a major water resource, groundwater plays a significant role in water supply. The combined impact of climate change and intensive human activities has caused a substantial decline in groundwater recharge and groundwater levels, as well as degradation of groundwater quality and associated changes in the ecosystems. Based on observational data, an integrated approach was used to assess the impact of climate change and human activities on the groundwater system and the base flow of the river basin. Methods included: river runoff records and a multivariate statistical analysis of data including historical groundwater levels and climate; hydro-chemical investigation and trend analysis of the historical hydro-chemical data; wavelet analysis of climate data; and the base flow index. The analyses indicate a clear warming trend and a decreasing trend in rainfall since the 1960s, in addition to increased human activities since the 1970s. The reduction of groundwater recharge in the past 30 years has led to a continuous depletion of groundwater levels, complex changes of the hydro-chemical environment, localized salinization, and a strong decline of the base flow to the river. It is expected that the results will contribute to a more comprehensive management plan for groundwater and the related eco-environment in the face of growing pressures from intensive human activities superimposed on climate change in this region.

Investigation of the evolution of the groundwater system and its mechanisms is critical to the sustainable management of water in river basins. Temporal and spatial distributions and characteristics of groundwater have undergone a tremendous change with the intensity of human activities in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin (HRB), the second largest arid inland river basin in northwestern China. Based on groundwater observation data, hydrogeological data, meteorological data and irrigation statistical data, combined with geostatistical analyses and groundwater storage estimation, the basin-scaled evolution of the groundwater levels and storage (from 1985 to 2013) were investigated. The results showed that the unbalanced allocation of water sources and expanded cropland by policy-based human activities resulted in the over-abstraction of groundwater, which induced a general decrease in the water table and groundwater storage. The groundwater level has generally fallen from 4.92 to 11.49 m from 1985 to 2013, especially in the upper and middle parts of the alluvial fan (zone I), and reached a maximum depth of 17.41 m. The total groundwater storage decreased by 177.52 × 10⁸ m³; zone I accounted for about 94.7 % of the total decrease. The groundwater balance was disrupted and the groundwater system was in a severe negative balance; it was noted that the groundwater/surface-water interaction was also deeply affected. It is essential to develop a rational plan for integration and management of surface water and groundwater resources in the HRB.