Food security in the changing global climate
1989
Sinha, S.K. | Rao, N.H. | Swaminathan, M.S.
Food security is a cause for concern in the best of times. Even under present climatic conditions, food grain requirements in all regions of the world will rise as populations increase. Except in Africa and South America, there is no possibility of more land opening up for cultivation. Most of the increase in agricultural production will have to come from increased crop yield. For most crops, no major improvements in productivity have occurred in the past two decades, and sustaining a growth rate in food production higher than the growth rate in population while providing for national food security are major challenges. The international community would have to rise high above regional and national interests to overcome problems in the global food system. How future agricultural production and food systems will be affected by global climatic change depends on the magnitude of the change in specific regions. But geographical variations in the projected climatic changes are uncertain. Considered in isolation, the enhanced levels of CO2 in the atmosphere appear to promote production in some crops, if adequate inputs are available. However, most projections are based only on studies of vegetative growth. A warming of 2 deg C promotes sterility in rice, reducing yield 25% or more. A similar rise in temperature could greatly affect wheat. A detailed regional analysis is needed to project the effects of climatic change on agricultural production.
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