Fasciolosis incidence forecasts in Belgium by means of climatic data | Modelisation du cycle de Fasciola hepatica en Belgique a partir de parametres climatiques
1999
Bossaert, K. | Losson, B. (Universite de Liege, Sart Tilman (Belgium). Faculte de medecine veterinaire) | Lonneux, J.F. | Peeters, J.
Forecast models based on daily temperatures and the Stormont ®wet day¯ fluke forecasting system were applied to assess the risk of Fasciola hepatica over Belgium. The development times of the parasite both in the egg stage and within the snail were assessed under annual climatic conditions by collecting data from different meteorological stations. The fluke larval development is possible only from late April to October, with regional variations. In the North of Belgium, 170 days are available to complete this development whereas in the South/East this period is reduced to 130 days. In this case, parasite life cycle can not be completed in one grazing season. In most of the regions, cercariae sheds occur two or three times a year: the first one, in spring, is moderate and the second one, at the end of the summer, is more important. A last one may be present some years in late September. In the area closed to Elsenborn only one cercariae shed occurs in summer. Efficiency and effects of several flukicides were compared from estimations of cercariae sheds. Preventive therapeutic procedures were suggested according to the liver fluke prediction incidence which tends to fluctuate over areas and years. When the predicted incidence is low, one treatment efficient against late immature and adult stages is adviced 70 days after housing. When this incidence is high, a first treatment is adviced at housing and a second one 70 days later. Climatic conditions of 1998 are discussed in order to predict the current incidence of fasciolosis.
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