Changes in Japanese dietary patterns and future demand for food products
2000
Ishibashi, K. (National Research Inst. of Agricultural Economics, Tokyo (Japan))
The Japanese diet has been characterized by a nutritionally well-balanced intakes and has drawn wide attention internationally because of its acclaimed healthfulness. The individual by age groups consumption of rice, fresh fish, fresh meats, fresh milk and milk products, fresh vegetables and fresh fruits were estimated from the early 1980s to the middle of 1990s. Panel data of approximately 96,000 households per year of the Family Income and Expenditure Survey were used. The multiple regression model expressed monthly consumption of a chosen commodity by a j-th household (dependent variable) as a linear function of the j-th household's number of family members by age groups (independent variables). At home consumption of beef by teen-agers increased the fastest: up 65% and those in their forties to sixties also increased substantially: 20% over this period. Fresh milk increased greatly among the elderly: 60-70%. Among young people, at home consumption of fresh vegetables and fruits declined gradually: 25%, 70% respectively over the same period. Extrapolating the trends of consumption by age groups from the early 1980s to the middle of 1990s, demand was forecast for the year of 2010 considering the age composition of future society. The demand at home of rice and fresh fish is estimated to decline greatly (approximately 40%, 10% respectively), while that of fresh meats (5%) and fresh milk (30%) is estimated to increase in 2010. The demand at home of fresh vegetables (5%) and fresh fruits (10%) will decrease. These findings may suggest that Japanese people will continue to move in diet toward the western nations in the future
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