Rice supply and demand in Thailand: recent trends and future outlook
2002
Isvilanonda, S.
This paper discusses the factors that contributed to the development of the rice sector in Thailand and analyzes their impact on the emerging trends in domestic rice supply and demand. Supply and demand parameters are estimated based on time-series data from 1971 to 1999 for use in assessing Thailand's rice exportable surplus in the next two decades. The study notes significant improvement in labor productivity despite slower growth in yield. Such improvement came from higher rural wage rates as labor shifted from rural to urban areas, thus inducing the adoption of machinery and other labor-saving techniques in rice production. The own-price elasticity of the rice supply is very inelastic. Among the nonprice factors, investments in rice research played a dominant role in raising the rice supply. Growth in the rice supply is projected to slow down at 0.54% per annum. Demand analysis similarly shows that the response to rice price is inelastic. The income effect on demand, however, is negative, which indicates that rice is an inferior good. With a projected lower growth rate in population, future growth in domestic rice demand will decline at 0.30% per annum. The projected trends in rice supply and demand will enable Thailand to maintain its exportable surplus. It is expected that surpluses will further increase from 7.4 million t (of milled rice) in 1999 to 9.9 million t in 2020.
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Эту запись предоставил International Rice Research Institute