Impact of global warming on broiler meat production estimated from changes of the mean ambient temperature
2006
Yamazaki, M.(National Inst. of Livestock and Grassland Science, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)) | Murakami, H. | Nakashima, K. | Abe, H. | Sugiura, T. | Yokozawa, M. | Kurihara, M.
This study was carried out to assess the impact of global warming on the broiler meat production in Japan. The relation between ambient temperature and meat production was investigated and it was found that at 27.2 and 30.0 deg C, meat production decreased by 5 and 15%, respectively, compared to meat production at 23.0 deg C. The summer (July, August and September) data were analyzed with a program that illustrates the temperature range and the area on the map. The database of "Climate Change Mesh Data (Japan)" was used to calculate the annual mean temperature under the climate change scenario at all 10 X 10 km mesh. In 2060's, the mean temperature of July, August and September in south Kyushu area (Miyazaki and Kagoshima city) and north Tohoku area (Aomori and Morioka city) was predicted to increase from 1.8-2.5 deg C and from 3.0-4.5 deg C, respectively. In all months, meat production will decrease gradually and with the progress of year, and serious effects were forecasted in Kyushu, Shikoku, Chugoku and Kinki area. In Tohoku area, where it is not a hot area, meat production will be affected with global warming. This area is main producer of Japanese chicken, therefore, effective measures to present the decrease in production are necessary. In conclusion, global warming will greatly affect the chicken meat production in Japan by the middle of 21st century.
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