Long-term forecasting of households' consumption expenditures
2008
Auzina, A., Riga Technical Univ. (Latvia)
Households' consumption expenditures are an important element in the economy, and changes in volume or structure have an affected on the development of both domestic and foreign industries. So far, the majority of studies have been focussed on aggregated trends of households' consumption expenditures or on very specific aspects of evaluation and modelling of individual products or services. At present, a detailed study is needed to reveal various aspects and relations. The object of this research is households' consumption in Latvia, and the goals are to analyse the purposes for which households in Latvia expend funds, to reveal influencing factors and to construct a modelling tool applicable to long-term modelling. The methods used to achieve the determined research goals are quantitative and qualitative including inductive and deductive methods, analysis and synthesis methods, regression analysis, and econometric modelling. The research results show that disaggregated consumption is influenced by numerous factors. Since many influencing factors revealed in the forecasting period (especially, in the long term) are hard to model (as exogenous factors) and to include in the Latvian multi-sectoral macroeconomic model, the choice of independent variables included in equations is determined by actual data availability and feasible forecasting options of the values in future time periods.
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