Methodologies to Assess the Economy Wide Impact of Avian Flu.
2008
Devesh Roy
This paper is aimed at suggesting common methodologies to assess the economy wide impact of avian flu outbreak in the following five countries: Ethiopia, Ghana, Indonesia, Kenya and Nigeria. Indeed, these countries differ in their socio-economic, veterinary and institutional contexts including the importance of the poultry sector, its structure and the history of the disease. Hence, a uniform methodology that can be applied to all countries has its limitations in terms of applicability to each individual country. However, the objective is to suggest a broadly similar methodology that can be modified to fit the context of individual countries and can answer the main research questions of interest. The choice of methodology is related to questions such as whether a partial or a general equilibrium modeling is to be implemented, how the shocks to the models will be determined, what shocks the models will include and what will be the appropriate unit of analysis. The discussion here presents a generic modeling approach to capture the macroeconomic (only within country effects) impact of avian flu outbreak and control measures.
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