The Southern Oscillation Index as a predictor of seasonal rainfall in the arable areas of the inland Australian subtropics.
1993
Russell J.S. | McLeod I.M. | Dale M.B. | Valentine T.R.
A detailed study was carried out in 4 regions in the subtropics of eastern Australia from 1915 to 1991 for 3-monthly periods of spring (SON), summer (DJF), autumn (MAM), and winter (JJA). The 3-monthly prior Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values were plotted against seasonal rainfall of the 4 regions and 4 seasons. These data were widely scattered but with a linear trend showing increased seasonal rainfall as the SOI increased. Linear trends were plotted for each season and region. Comparisons were made between the use the ACE algorithm, which transforms the SOI and rainfall data, and the use of linear trends. Polynomials were used to calculate equations for each region and season, but only spring and summer produced satisfactory ACE functions. Estimates were made of spring and summer rainfall relative to prior SOI values for each region. While the SOI as a predictor of rainfall broadly estimates spring and summer rainfall, this variable has limited usefulness on its own. One of the options available with the ACE program is that additional independent variables can be added as required. Current research suggests that sea surface temperature data from specific ocean areas surrounding the Australian continent is the most useful additional variable at present. However the complexity of such an analysis is greatly increased.
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