Forecasting milk production in Pakistan
2011
Ahmed, F. (National Agricultural Research Centre, Islamabad (Pakistan). Social Sciences Inst.) | Shah, H. (National Agricultural Research Centre, Islamabad (Pakistan). Social Sciences Inst.) | Raza, I. (National Agricultural Research Centre, Islamabad (Pakistan). Social Sciences Inst.) | Saboor, A. (PMAS Arid Agriculture Univ., Rawalpindi (Pakistan))
This paper forecasts milk production in Pakistan using time series data from 1990 to 2010. ARIMA (p, d, q) model is considered for estimation where 'p' is the order of the autoregressive process; 'd' is the order of the homogeneity and 'q' the order of the moving average process. Presence of trend in data was checked through time series plots and stationarity through auto correlation and partial auto correlation functions. Using the ARIMA (p, d, q) forecasts from 2010 up to 2015 were made and production of milk in 2015 was estimated at 47492 t.
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