Economic study of international cotton market with special reference to Egyptian cotton

Egyptian producers called cotton (white gold), this was a clear conception of what cotton meant to them. The various policies affected Egyptian agriculture in the last 50 years, and this in turn affected the cotton industry especially in the sector of cotton exports. In addition cotton has a special advantage for being a backbone of the Egyptian Economy for a long time representing a major export crop. This study aims to examine the demand for Egyptian cotton in the world markets. It concentrates on the study of declining demand in relation to failing both domestic production and exports in the light of contemporary international economic variables and the adoption of economic reform in Egypt. Therefore, the study analyzes the time trends and performance of the cotton production, trading and consumption. Besides constructs an econometric simultaneous model for determine the important factors affecting the demand for Egyptian cotton in the world markets, and econometric simultaneous model for determine the important factors affecting the demand for Cotton. The study is divided in five chapters. The first chapter reviews the related previous studies; the second chapter includes the major characteristics of world cotton during the period (1990-2008). The third chapter illustrates the major characteristics of Egypt cotton through the same period, The fourth chapter includes Current status of the global production of long staple cotton and future of Egyptian cotton under the current circumstances, The fifth chapter studies the results of statistical analysis of the world cotton market and the Egyptian market by using econometric simultaneous model for determine the most important factors affecting demand in the world. These determinant are beginning stocks, exports of cotton, the world's population, the price of polyester in the previous year, the world export price for cotton, the factors that reflected the time factor, the global consumption of cotton in previous year, global consumption of cotton, the world's imports of cotton the previous year, The world I price of cotton the previous year, The factors that affect the global demand for Egyptian cotton are Egypt's imports of cotton, the factors that reflected the factor of time, dummy variables which reflect the collapse of USSR, the world export price of cotton , end Stocks of Egyptian cotton for the previous year, Egypt's exports of cotton, Egypt's imports -from Cotton the previous year, the price ratio of the farm price of cotton for Maize in the previous year. looks at the future of cotton, in the world by forecasting its progress during the period (2009-2018), the direction of the Beginning stock to decline during the same period, while that the harvested area and end stock consumption relatively stable during the same Period, while exports and imports tended to increase during the same period, As for the forecasting of the Egyptian market during the same period the harvested area has tended to decline while increasing domestic consumption and with the relative stability in the beginning stock, as well as exports.