The best cropping pattern of Syrian agriculture in the shadow of present international variables

This study aims to reach the best cropping pattern that meets both the country and farmer goals in the shadow of the present international variables. To achieve these goals linear programming and goal programming methods were used to achieve the objective of maximizing income and minimizing water requirements at the same time. The alternatives for the cropping pattern have been estimated and their results have been compared to the current cropping pattern in the three basin of the study (Alassi, Dajleh-khabour, Euphrates), in addition to study the impact of some economic policies on cropping pattern (Dajleh-khabour) and forecast cropping pattern in light of the growing crop area irrigated by the use of different technological levels of water supply and raise the efficiency of use, and the results showed 1-Alassi Basin: It achieves the increasing in net return 9.2% higher than that current cropping pattern. Since the Syrian economy is a closed economy is not allowed to show the exogenous variables directly, so it has been used programming methods (linear goal) based on world prices.Which achieved an increase in net return 14.22% in comparison to the curent cropping pattern.2-Dajleh-Khabour Basin.The best alternative under world prices is the seventh alternative cropping highest net return 45524.78 million SP,and use of the element of water.3-Euphraties basin.The study summarizes of the Euphrates basin using world prices that thealternative in the case of Goal programming is the best alternatives comparison to current cropping pattern and the best alternative of the proposed of linear programming.4-The impact of some policies. The results show that replacing 10% of the wheat area by some other winter crops will raise the rate of the return by 28.29% its match in the current cropping pattern.5-This section includes prediction of cropping pattern of Syria under the application of different levels of Technology in agriculture , which aims to reduce the Waste of water thus increase the availability of water for agriculture, and the application of mathematical models,1-Maximize return:the return of the suggested cropping pattern will reach 68726 Millions of Syrian pounds, which means increasing rate by about 52.63% more than the current return.Dajleh-Khabour Basin.1-Maximize return:when the area of the irrigatedcrop increases by 10% the return of the suggsted cropping pattern will reach 86880 Millions of Syrian pounds.The results of analyzing the cropping pattern show that: the return, the amount of water and the water unit return will be about 37.30%,29.06%,196.83% respectively of the their matches in the current cropping pattern when the area of the irrigated crop increases by 20%.2- Minimize needed water: the return of the suggested cropping pattern will reach 56356.54 Millions of Syrian pounds i.e. the increasing rate is 28.71% of the more than the current return. The required amount of water for the suggested cropping pattern will rise from about 2233.31 millions m3 to be about 2396.88 million m3.Euphraties basin.1- Maximize return: the return of the suggested cropping pattern will reach 122232.69 Millions of Syrian pounds, which means increasing rate by about 66.74% more than the current return.2-Minimize needed water:the return of the suggested cropping pattern will reach 85745.70 Millions of Syrian pounds i.e. the increasing rate is 16.96%of the more than the current raturn.The required amount of water for the suggested cropping pattern will rise from 3753.65 millions m3to 4050.35 millions m3.