Reforming agricultural trade for developing countries: volume two: quantifying the impact of multilateral trade reform

Among the many reasons that agricultural trade reforms are important, two stand out: the importance of agriculture in developing countries and the slow growth of agricultural trade from developing countries to developed countries.<br />This report focuses on the concerns of developing countries (DCs) in the context of WTO agricultural negotiations, and assesses the various impacts of a possible final agreement. In this sense, the paper believes that the final agreement could significantly spur growth and reduce poverty in DCs.Highlighting the delay in Doha Round, the document indicates that delays in trade negotiations are not uncommon, where impasses on agricultural trade liberalisation have been always noticeable. Furthermore, the report draws the following findings: trade liberalisation based on finalising Doha Round and spanning all sectors and all countries has small, but noticeable and positive effects for the global food security situation in DCs however, sustained price increases might attract additional investment, leading to deeper penetration of markets in DCs which may not have been well integrated with the world market in fact, it would be mildly beneficial for DCs, overall, to participate fully in a broad, multi-sectoral round of trade and market liberalisation an extension of WTO reforms by OECD countries alone has very small and generally negative impacts on the average food security situation in DCs nevertheless, food security in individual DCs or in selected groups of people within a NME could certainly be affected more significantly than others the medium-term implications of trade reform are not fundamental to the broader food security problem faced by many of DCs <br />The authors conclude that if liberalisation encourages deeper market penetration so that more regions within DCs can choose food self-reliance, then food security of individuals in these regions may be improved. Consequently, liberalisation might be expected to have long-run effects of increasing the productivity and wealth of DCs with positive impacts on their food security. <br /><br />