Spatial and temporal variations of agricultural chemical fertilization in China from 2000 to 2010 | 2000~2010年我国农业化肥施用的时空演变格局

Китайский. 基于地市级2000--2010年化肥施用总量、农地面积、作物播种面积等相关数据，利用空间自相关及冷热点等分析方法，对近年来各地区化肥施用总量与单位农地化肥施用负荷的时空演变特征及其驱动类型进行了分析，结果表明：1）从Moran’sI值判断，20002010年间我国的化肥施用量在区域上一直处于较高的集聚状态，但在时间上经历了“2000--2004年集聚减弱”～“2004--2007年集聚增强”～“2007年后集聚再减弱”的波动减低过程。2）从化肥施用总量来看，全国86．9％的地市在2000--2010年间表现为增加态势。3）东北三省和内蒙古的东北部地区成为近年来化肥施用增加的热点地区，西部的农业欠发达地区成为冷点区；东南部次冷点区域的拓展说明珠三角与长三角非农经济发展对农业生产的负面影响已经向内地传导，产生梯度效应。4）从化肥施用负荷水平来看，2000--2010年间，我国单位农地面积的化肥施用负荷从300．0kg／hm2增加到4儿．3kg／hm2，增长明显。从区域上来看，近10年来，我国化肥施用高负荷的地区呈现出明显的拓展趋势，而低负荷地区范围在缩减。

Английский. Spatial and temporal variations of agricultural chemical fertilizer and driving types in China between 2000 and 2010 were analyzed deeply at the municipal level using the spatial cluster analysis methods. There were five major findings from the study. 1） National Moran＇s Index values remained high from 2000 to 2010 （although with a downward trend） which indicated clustering of China＇s chemical fertilizer application. 2） Integrated fertilizer application of 86.9 percent of nationwide municipalities showed an upward trend from 2000 to 2010.3） The three Northeastern provinces and Northeastern Inner Mongolia became the hot spot of chemical fertilizer application, whereas the Western underdeveloped areas became the clod spot. The expanding sub-cold spot in the Southeast China indicated that the negative impact of non-farm economy development of the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta on agriculture has shifted from the coast to the interior part. 4） Chemical fertilizer application per unit area of agricultural land in China increased rapidly from 300.0 kg/hm2 in 2000 to 411.3 kg/hm2 in 2010. Over the past decade,the area with high levels of fertilizer application has expanded significantly,while the region under a low-load condition has shrunk.