Regional changes of production layout of main grain crops and their actuation factors during 1981-2008 in China | 近30年我国主要粮食作物生产的驱动因素及空间格局变化研究

Китайский. 阐明主要粮食作物生产格局的区域变化特征,对我国粮食安全战略决策意义重大。以我国大陆31个省、市、自治区生产数据为基础,对1981―2008年我国七大粮食主产区的水稻、小麦、玉米三大作物生产格局的变化特征及其驱动因素进行了分析。结果表明：改革开放以来,我国的粮食生产格局发生了较大变化,水稻产量重心和播种面积重心分别向东北方向偏移了275和218 km,小麦产量重心和播种面积重心则分别向东偏南和正南方向偏移了58和101 km,而玉米的产量重心和播种面积重心向北偏东方向移动了184和123 km;播种面积是影响我国三大粮食作物生产的关键驱动因素,总人口、有效灌溉面积、农业机械总动力、化肥投入量以及旱灾与水灾的成灾面积等社会经济、农业生产投入和气象因素等对粮食生产同样存在影响。保持粮食播种面积稳定,加强农田基础设施建设,增强农田抵御自然灾害能力,是保障粮食增产的关键措施。

Английский. Understanding of the regional changes of production layout of the main grain crops will help the strategy decision of food security in China.Based on province scales,the regional differences in production layout of rice,wheat and corn for seven regions in China and their actuation factors during 1981-2008 were analyzed in this study.The results showed that the regional layout characteristics of the three main grain crops were obvious and that clear trends were found in the layout with significant spatial movement.The production centers of total production and sown area of rice moved northeastward about 275 and 218 km,respectively.The production centers of total production and sown area of wheat moved southeastward and south about 58 and 101 km,respectively.Meanwhile,the production centers of total production and sown area of corn moved northeastward about 184 and 123 km,respectively.Change of sown area for main grain crops was the key actuation factor which affected the regional production layout deeply.On the other hand,total population,effective irrigation area,agricultural machinery power,chemical fertilizer inputs,flood disaster and drought area had effect on the regional production layout.Key measures should be drawn up to ensure the food security including keeping the sown area steady,strengthening the construction of basic farmland infrastructure,and promoting the farmland′s capability to resist natural disasters.