Adapting grapevine varieties to climate change: can the genetic variability meet the challenge?
Duchêne , Eric (INRA (France). UMR 1131 Santé de la Vigne et Qualité du Vin) | Huard , Frederic (INRA , Avignon (France). US 1116 Agroclim) | Dumas , Vincent (INRA (France). UMR 1131 Santé de la Vigne et Qualité du Vin) | Schneider , Christophe Joseph (INRA (France). UMR 1131 Santé de la Vigne et Qualité du Vin) | Merdinoglu , Didier (INRA (France). UMR 1131 Santé de la Vigne et Qualité du Vin)
Climate change is expected to advance grapevine phenological stages. Using a degree-days model, we were able to simulate dates of budbreak, flowering and véraison for Riesling and Gewurztraminer, two winegrape varieties grown in Alsace, France. Projected daily temperatures were calculated for the Colmar meteorological station with the ARPEGE-Climat general circulation model using three distinct greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Compared with its timing in 1976-2008, véraison is predicted to advance by up to 23 days and mean temperatures during the 35 days following véraison are projected to increase by more than 7°C by the end of the twenty-first century for both varieties. Such changes will likely have a significant impact on grape and wine quality. Using the same framework, the genetic variability of phenological parameters was explored with 120 genotypes of progeny from a Riesling x Gewurztraminer cross, along with 14 European varieties. In addition, we created a virtual late ripening genotype, derived from a cross between Riesling and Gewurztraminer. This modelled genotype was projected to undergo véraison 2-3 days before Muscat of Alexandria, one of the latest ripening varieties studied. Even with this virtual genotype, or with Muscat of Alexandria, grapes would ripen by the middle of the twenty-first century under higher temperatures than in the present years.
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