[Study of Sheep Meat Demand Determinants in Syria by using Econometric Models_Case of Damascus and Damascus rural]

This thesis aimed mainly to estimate the important economical indictors such as income, expenditure, own and cross price elasticities, which are essential in estimating current and future demand of sheep meat in Damascus and Damascus rural, and Syria. They were estimated by analyzing the main sheep meat demand determents, and also by evaluating sheep meet consuming and expenditure patterns at Syrian family and person levels. The study depended on sets of primary and secondary data, where, 324 family were collected randomly from Damascus and Damascus Rural (D and DR) provinces as field cross section data, and 780 family obtained from Central Bureau of Syria (CBS), which collected field survey for all Syria at three periods 2003/2004, 2006/2007 and 2009/2010, in rate 260 family from each period. Moreover, time series data were collected of 1985-2011 period to obtain price elasticities, where it consist of the annual average of available sheep meat and retailer prices of main types of meat in Syria. Engle Curve Model (ECM) had chosen to analyze the collected data because of its accordant for collected data. After comparing between four linear formulas of ECM, Logarithm inverse(LI) formula was more suitable to analyze collected data. On other hand, log-lin formula of ECM was used to analyze time-series data for 1985-2010 period, and to estimate total demand on sheep meat and other main kinds of meat in Syria, and estimating own and cross price elasticities. Filed results showed that the value of sheep meat expenditure elasticity within study area (D and DR) accounted by 0.671 at average family expenditure level (s.p27713 per month). Sheep meat income elasticity accounted by 0.4733 at per capita income level (s.p4641 per month). On other hand, the average family expenditure on sheep meat accounted by s.p1242 monthly, and it's consumption accounted by 2.3kg/month. Analyzing Central Bureau of Syria (CBS) data showed that monthly family expenditure on sheep meat was elastic during three surveys, but it was more elastic in 2009/2010 survey comparing with other two surveys. The value of elastic coefficient of Syrian family expenditure on sheep meat accounted by 1.6 in 2009/2010 survey, while its accounted by 1.1 in both surveys 2003/2004 and 2006/2007. analyzing time-series data showed that per capita expenditure on sheep meat was elastic during study period, while it was inelastic on cow and poultry meat. Elasticity coefficient of per capita expenditure on sheep, cow and poultry meat accounted by 1.54, 0.22 and 0.27 respectively. This mean that Syrian consumer will increase his expenditure on sheep meat more than other main types of meat and more than his income increasing rate, if his income increased. Results also showed that own price elasticity coefficient of cow meat was the lowest coefficient, it is accounted by -0.84, while the own price elasticity coefficients of sheep and poultry meat accounted by -1.16 and -1.18 respectively. This is considered an indicator of the importance of cow meat in nutrition pattern of Syrian consumer. On other hand, results of estimating future demand of sheep meat showed that local demand of sheep meat will reach to 180986 ton in 2013, and will increase to 212831 ton in 2020. Sheep meat market gape will wobble between 14179 ton in 2013 and 27060 in 2020. Study concluded by recommending the necessity of intensifying the government efforts to fill the projected gape of sheep meat market in coming years by using study's indictors. This is to meet actual consumer needs with suitable prices. Study emphasized to actuate the responsible sides in the government for decreasing the lamp exports volume for two years. Study recommended also to encourage investing in sheep meat production field, and giving more facilities to the investors. In addition to insuring enough amounts of substitute meat from all available sources.